Montreal Canadiens at Dallas Stars, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Nick SuzukiGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists1
- Nick SuzukiPoints2
Stars- Wyatt JohnstonGoals1
- Mason MarchmentAssists2
- Wyatt JohnstonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:00Jason Robertson Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Matt Duchene (21), Mason Marchment (14)4–3
- P316:12Wyatt Johnston Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Evgenii Dadonov (8), Mason Marchment (13)4–2
- P36:45Cole Caufield Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (13), Nick Suzuki (22)4–1
- P26:54Jordan Harris Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P19:46Kaiden Guhle Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (2), Michael Pezzetta (5)2–1
- P14:14Nick Suzuki Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (10), Jordan Harris (4)1–1
- P10:11Jamie Benn Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (13)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:11Jamie Benn Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Wyatt Johnston (13)MTL 0 – 1 DAL · DAL 56% → 70% +14DAL 56% → 70%+14 pts
- P14:14Nick Suzuki Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (10), Jordan Harris (4)MTL 1 – 1 DAL · MTL 30% → 44% +14MTL 30% → 44%+14 pts
- P19:46Kaiden Guhle Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Johnathan Kovacevic (2), Michael Pezzetta (5)MTL 2 – 1 DAL · MTL 44% → 60% +16MTL 44% → 60%+16 pts
- P26:54Jordan Harris Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMTL 3 – 1 DAL · MTL 65% → 81% +16MTL 65% → 81%+16 pts
- P36:45Cole Caufield Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Sean Monahan (13), Nick Suzuki (22)MTL 4 – 1 DAL · MTL 93% → 99% +6MTL 93% → 99%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Stars 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL 62%
- Fair odds
- DAL -129
- MTL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.0 – 3.3 DAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1477 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +2 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.07 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · DAL: Scott Wedgewood: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +81 Elo | DAL 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.62nd of 31 |
| 26th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.6 | Margin | +0.67th of 31 |
| 27th of 3146.6% | Shot share | 49.9%16th of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 90.3%15th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 31 |
| 16th of 318–9 | Road vs home | 11–68th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.