Montreal Canadiens at Florida Panthers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors FLA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals1
- Mike MathesonAssists1
- Cole CaufieldPoints1
Panthers- Eetu LuostarinenGoals2
- Oliver Ekman-LarssonAssists2
- Eetu LuostarinenPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:13Carter Verhaeghe Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (22), Aaron Ekblad (6)1–4
- P315:26Sam Bennett Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (11), Carter Verhaeghe (14)1–3
- P37:34Eetu Luostarinen Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Aaron Ekblad (5), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (10)1–2
- P27:01Cole Caufield Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Nick Suzuki (21), Mike Matheson (20)1–1
- P24:05Eetu Luostarinen Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Evan Rodrigues (17), Sam Bennett (6)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:05Eetu Luostarinen Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Evan Rodrigues (17), Sam Bennett (6)MTL 0 – 1 FLA · FLA 51% → 69% +18FLA 51% → 69%+18 pts
- P27:01Cole Caufield Goal (9) Backhand, assists: Nick Suzuki (21), Mike Matheson (20)MTL 1 – 1 FLA · MTL 30% → 49% +19MTL 30% → 49%+19 pts
- P37:34Eetu Luostarinen Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Aaron Ekblad (5), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (10)MTL 1 – 2 FLA · FLA 51% → 79% +29FLA 51% → 79%+29 pts
- P315:26Sam Bennett Goal (6) Tip-In, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (11), Carter Verhaeghe (14)MTL 1 – 3 FLA · FLA 91% → >99% +9FLA 91% → >99%+9 pts
- P317:13Carter Verhaeghe Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (22), Aaron Ekblad (6)MTL 1 – 4 FLA · FLA >99% → >99% +0FLA >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Panthers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- FLA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- FLA 56%
- Fair odds
- FLA -108
- MTL +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.1 – 3.2 FLA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | FLA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | FLA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −1 | MTL: Jake Allen: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · FLA: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +43 Elo | FLA 56.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | FLA 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | FLA 51.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.65th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.5 | Margin | +0.39th of 31 |
| 27th of 3146.4% | Shot share | 55.6%3rd of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 91.2%9th of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 9th of 318–7 | Road vs home | 11–55th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MTL 0–1 FLA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.