Montreal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TB; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- Johnathan KovacevicGoals1
- Mike MathesonAssists1
- Nick SuzukiPoints1
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Victor HedmanAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:55Nick Suzuki Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Juraj Slafkovsky (9), Mike Matheson (21)3–4
- P314:54Nikita Kucherov Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (31), Anthony Cirelli (9)2–4
- P37:49Calvin de Haan Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (35), Steven Stamkos (22)2–3
- P217:36Austin Watson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (30), Nick Perbix (9)2–2
- P214:01Brayden Point Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Paul (10), Brandon Hagel (20)2–1
- P211:59Johnathan Kovacevic Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Montembeault (1)2–0
- P23:58Cole Caufield Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P23:58Cole Caufield Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: noneMTL 1 – 0 TB · MTL 46% → 65% +18MTL 46% → 65%+18 pts
- P211:59Johnathan Kovacevic Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Sam Montembeault (1)MTL 2 – 0 TB · MTL 67% → 84% +16MTL 67% → 84%+16 pts
- P214:01Brayden Point Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicholas Paul (10), Brandon Hagel (20)MTL 2 – 1 TB · TB 15% → 32% +17TB 15% → 32%+17 pts
- P217:36Austin Watson Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (30), Nick Perbix (9)MTL 2 – 2 TB · TB 30% → 53% +23TB 30% → 53%+23 pts
- P37:49Calvin de Haan Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (35), Steven Stamkos (22)MTL 2 – 3 TB · TB 52% → 81% +28TB 52% → 81%+28 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Lightning 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Fair odds
- TB -122
- MTL +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.0 – 3.3 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | TB and MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −12 | MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.12 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · TB: Jonas Johansson: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +35 Elo | TB 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.6 | Margin | −0.120th of 31 |
| 27th of 3146.3% | Shot share | 49.3%20th of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.3% | Save percentage | 89.4%25th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 11th of 318–8 | Road vs home | 10–814th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MTL 0–1 TB in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.