New York Islanders at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Brock NelsonGoals1
- Brock NelsonAssists1
- Brock NelsonPoints2
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals2
- Cale MakarAssists3
- Nathan MacKinnonPoints3
Scoring summary
- OT0:32Nathan MacKinnon Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (36), Mikko Rantanen (28)4–5
- P312:21Valeri Nichushkin Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (41), Cale Makar (35)4–4
- P210:18Alexander Romanov Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (27)4–3
- P28:24Jonathan Drouin Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (27), Nathan MacKinnon (40)3–3
- P24:18Valeri Nichushkin Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (4), Jonathan Drouin (12)3–2
- P21:09Simon Holmstrom Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Cal Clutterbuck (8)3–1
- P119:28Brock Nelson Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (30), Ilya Sorokin (1)2–1
- P16:11Devon Toews Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Logan O'Connor (7), Cale Makar (34)1–1
- P15:39Pierre Engvall Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Nelson (15)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:28Brock Nelson Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (30), Ilya Sorokin (1)NYI 2 – 1 COL · NYI 45% → 63% +17NYI 45% → 63%+17 pts
- P28:24Jonathan Drouin Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (27), Nathan MacKinnon (40)NYI 3 – 3 COL · COL 35% → 54% +20COL 35% → 54%+20 pts
- P210:18Alexander Romanov Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (27)NYI 4 – 3 COL · NYI 46% → 66% +20NYI 46% → 66%+20 pts
- P312:21Valeri Nichushkin Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (41), Cale Makar (35)NYI 4 – 4 COL · COL 17% → 52% +35COL 17% → 52%+35 pts
- OT0:32Nathan MacKinnon Goal (20) Slap Shot, assists: Cale Makar (36), Mikko Rantanen (28)NYI 4 – 5 COL · COL 52% → 92% +40COL 52% → 92%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 60%
- Fair odds
- COL -127
- NYI +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.0 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +11 | +3 | NYI: Semyon Varlamov: team allows 0.27 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +67 Elo | COL 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.64th of 31 |
| 20th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.65th of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.5% | Shot share | 52.7%6th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.3% | Save percentage | 90.2%15th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 19th of 317–9 | Road vs home | 14–41st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYI 0–1 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.