San Jose Sharks at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Calen AddisonAssists1
- Mikael GranlundPoints1
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals1
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists2
- Valeri NichushkinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:53Josh Manson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (16), Ryan Johansen (4)1–3
- P316:31Valeri Nichushkin Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Johnson (5), Nathan MacKinnon (39)1–2
- P216:53Tomas Hertl Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (20), Calen Addison (11)1–1
- P16:58Mikko Rantanen Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (38), Valeri Nichushkin (19)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:58Mikko Rantanen Goal (19) Snap Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (38), Valeri Nichushkin (19)SJ 0 – 1 COL · COL 57% → 72% +14COL 57% → 72%+14 pts
- P216:53Tomas Hertl Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (20), Calen Addison (11)SJ 1 – 1 COL · SJ 24% → 45% +21SJ 24% → 45%+21 pts
- P316:31Valeri Nichushkin Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Johnson (5), Nathan MacKinnon (39)SJ 1 – 2 COL · COL 52% → 94% +42COL 52% → 94%+42 pts
- P318:53Josh Manson Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Devon Toews (16), Ryan Johansen (4)SJ 1 – 3 COL · COL >99% → >99% +0COL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 69%
- Fair odds
- COL -137
- SJ +137 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −11 | 0 | SJ: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.28 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +136 Elo | COL 68.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 57.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 312.1 | Goals scored | 3.63rd of 31 |
| 31st of 314.2 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−2.1 | Margin | +0.67th of 31 |
| 31st of 3141.5% | Shot share | 52.2%6th of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.0% | Save percentage | 90.2%16th of 31 |
| 27th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 31st of 313–15 | Road vs home | 13–41st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SJ 0–2 COL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.