Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- Auston MatthewsGoals2
- TJ BrodieAssists1
- Auston MatthewsPoints2
Islanders- Mathew BarzalGoals1
- Noah DobsonAssists4
- Mathew BarzalPoints4
Scoring summary
- OT0:21Mathew Barzal Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Noah Dobson (36)3–4
- P213:51Bo Horvat Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Noah Dobson (35), Mathew Barzal (33)3–3
- P24:18Alexander Romanov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (32), Noah Dobson (34)3–2
- P22:40Auston Matthews Goal (33) Backhand, assists: Pontus Holmberg (3)3–1
- P20:26Auston Matthews Goal (32) Backhand, assists: Mitchell Marner (28), Matthew Knies (8)2–1
- P112:39Bobby McMann Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Gregor (3), TJ Brodie (9)1–1
- P10:40Kyle Palmieri Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Noah Dobson (33), Mathew Barzal (31)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P112:39Bobby McMann Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Gregor (3), TJ Brodie (9)TOR 1 – 1 NYI · TOR 32% → 47% +16TOR 32% → 47%+16 pts
- P20:26Auston Matthews Goal (32) Backhand, assists: Mitchell Marner (28), Matthew Knies (8)TOR 2 – 1 NYI · TOR 47% → 65% +18TOR 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P24:18Alexander Romanov Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mathew Barzal (32), Noah Dobson (34)TOR 3 – 2 NYI · NYI 19% → 34% +15NYI 19% → 34%+15 pts
- P213:51Bo Horvat Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Noah Dobson (35), Mathew Barzal (33)TOR 3 – 3 NYI · NYI 31% → 52% +21NYI 31% → 52%+21 pts
- OT0:21Mathew Barzal Goal (12) Tip-In, assists: Noah Dobson (36)TOR 3 – 4 NYI · NYI 51% → 91% +40NYI 51% → 91%+40 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 45%
- Fair odds
- NYI -113
- TOR +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.1 – 3.2 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +25 | −9 | TOR: Martin Jones: team allows 0.62 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.22 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +32 Elo | TOR 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.7 | Goals scored | 3.119th of 31 |
| 18th of 313.2 | Goals allowed | 3.526th of 31 |
| 9th of 31+0.5 | Margin | −0.424th of 31 |
| 9th of 3151.7% | Shot share | 45.1%29th of 31 |
| 14th of 3190.4% | Save percentage | 90.9%11th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 31 |
| 10th of 319–8 | Road vs home | 9–1122nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 0–1 NYI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.