San Jose Sharks at Toronto Maple Leafs, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Henry ThrunGoals1
- Mikael GranlundAssists1
- Henry ThrunPoints1
Maple Leafs- Mitch MarnerGoals2
- William NylanderAssists3
- Mitch MarnerPoints4
Scoring summary
- P35:54Nicholas Robertson Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Knies (7), Jake McCabe (12)1–7
- P34:00Mitchell Marner Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (27), William Nylander (36)1–6
- P31:27Jake McCabe Goal (2) Snap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (27), Simon Benoit (1)1–5
- P27:21Henry Thrun Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Mikael Granlund (22), Anthony Duclair (7)1–4
- P22:06Pontus Holmberg Goal (1) Poke, assists: Bobby McMann (4), David Kampf (4)0–4
- P20:54Mitchell Marner Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Jake McCabe (11), Timothy Liljegren (7)0–3
- P117:22Auston Matthews Goal (31) Slap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (26), William Nylander (35)0–2
- P116:48Morgan Rielly Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (34), TJ Brodie (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:48Morgan Rielly Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: William Nylander (34), TJ Brodie (8)SJ 0 – 1 TOR · TOR 57% → 73% +16TOR 57% → 73%+16 pts
- P117:22Auston Matthews Goal (31) Slap Shot, assists: Mitchell Marner (26), William Nylander (35)SJ 0 – 2 TOR · TOR 73% → 85% +12TOR 73% → 85%+12 pts
- P20:54Mitchell Marner Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Jake McCabe (11), Timothy Liljegren (7)SJ 0 – 3 TOR · TOR 86% → 94% +8TOR 86% → 94%+8 pts
- P22:06Pontus Holmberg Goal (1) Poke, assists: Bobby McMann (4), David Kampf (4)SJ 0 – 4 TOR · TOR 94% → 98% +4TOR 94% → 98%+4 pts
- P27:21Henry Thrun Goal (1) Tip-In, assists: Mikael Granlund (22), Anthony Duclair (7)SJ 1 – 4 TOR · SJ 2% → 5% +3SJ 2% → 5%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Maple Leafs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 70%
- Fair odds
- TOR -140
- SJ +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 2.9 – 3.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1427 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −8 | +23 | SJ: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · TOR: Martin Jones: team allows 0.59 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +150 Elo | TOR 70.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 58.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 312.1 | Goals scored | 3.66th of 31 |
| 31st of 314.2 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−2.1 | Margin | +0.412th of 31 |
| 31st of 3141.5% | Shot share | 51.3%12th of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.1% | Save percentage | 90.3%15th of 31 |
| 31st of 311–9 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 31st of 313–16 | Road vs home | 9–917th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SJ 0–1 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.