Detroit Red Wings at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- David PerronGoals2
- Lucas RaymondAssists3
- Lucas RaymondPoints3
Sharks- Alexander BarabanovGoals1
- Mario FerraroAssists2
- Mario FerraroPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:54Michael Rasmussen Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–3
- P318:30David Perron Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (20)4–3
- P310:55David Perron Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Daniel Sprong (14), Lucas Raymond (19)3–3
- P39:24Alexander Barabanov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (10), Ty Emberson (4)2–3
- P218:54Justin Bailey Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Mario Ferraro (9)2–2
- P26:07J.T. Compher Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Holl (5), Olli Maatta (6)2–1
- P116:50Fabian Zetterlund Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (21), Mike Hoffman (5)1–1
- P16:11Daniel Sprong Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (18), Shayne Gostisbehere (20)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:07J.T. Compher Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Justin Holl (5), Olli Maatta (6)DET 2 – 1 SJ · DET 48% → 67% +19DET 48% → 67%+19 pts
- P218:54Justin Bailey Goal (2) Tip-In, assists: Mario Ferraro (9)DET 2 – 2 SJ · SJ 28% → 52% +23SJ 28% → 52%+23 pts
- P39:24Alexander Barabanov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (10), Ty Emberson (4)DET 2 – 3 SJ · SJ 51% → 82% +30SJ 51% → 82%+30 pts
- P310:55David Perron Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Daniel Sprong (14), Lucas Raymond (19)DET 3 – 3 SJ · DET 17% → 49% +32DET 17% → 49%+32 pts
- P318:30David Perron Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Lucas Raymond (20)DET 4 – 3 SJ · DET 50% → 99% +49DET 50% → 99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 44%
- Fair odds
- SJ -112
- DET +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.1 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −8 | DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SJ: Kaapo Kahkonen: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +42 Elo | DET 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 52.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 2.131st of 31 |
| 21st of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 4.231st of 31 |
| 16th of 31+0.1 | Margin | −2.131st of 31 |
| 23rd of 3148.3% | Shot share | 41.1%31st of 31 |
| 21st of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 89.1%27th of 31 |
| 25th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 31 |
| 19th of 317–9 | Road vs home | 6–1029th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 SJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.