Toronto Maple Leafs at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Maple Leafs- William NylanderGoals2
- Tyler BertuzziAssists2
- William NylanderPoints3
Sharks- Mikael GranlundGoals1
- Fabian ZetterlundAssists1
- Mikael GranlundPoints1
Scoring summary
- P316:28William Nylander Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (22), Tyler Bertuzzi (12)4–1
- P311:57Mikael Granlund Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (6), Ty Emberson (6)3–1
- P39:34William Nylander Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (11), Jake McCabe (10)3–0
- P219:17Calle Jarnkrok Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Pontus Holmberg (2), Timothy Liljegren (6)2–0
- P115:22Mitchell Marner Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (26), William Nylander (33)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:22Mitchell Marner Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Morgan Rielly (26), William Nylander (33)TOR 1 – 0 SJ · TOR 48% → 65% +17TOR 48% → 65%+17 pts
- P219:17Calle Jarnkrok Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Pontus Holmberg (2), Timothy Liljegren (6)TOR 2 – 0 SJ · TOR 72% → 89% +16TOR 72% → 89%+16 pts
- P39:34William Nylander Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Tyler Bertuzzi (11), Jake McCabe (10)TOR 3 – 0 SJ · TOR 96% → >99% +4TOR 96% → >99%+4 pts
- P311:57Mikael Granlund Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Fabian Zetterlund (6), Ty Emberson (6)TOR 3 – 1 SJ · SJ <1% → 2% +2SJ <1% → 2%+2 pts
- P316:28William Nylander Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: John Tavares (22), Tyler Bertuzzi (12)TOR 4 – 1 SJ · TOR >99% → >99% +0TOR >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 41%
- Fair odds
- SJ -109
- TOR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.1 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +21 | −1 | TOR: Martin Jones: team allows 0.53 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.03 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +63 Elo | TOR 59.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 52.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TOR | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 2.131st of 31 |
| 20th of 313.3 | Goals allowed | 4.231st of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −2.131st of 31 |
| 13th of 3151.1% | Shot share | 41.4%31st of 31 |
| 15th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 89.1%27th of 31 |
| 18th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 1–931st of 31 |
| 13th of 318–8 | Road vs home | 6–1229th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.