Winnipeg Jets at San Jose Sharks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Morgan BarronGoals1
- Brenden DillonAssists1
- Gabriel VilardiPoints1
Sharks- Alexander BarabanovGoals1
- Ty EmbersonAssists1
- Alexander BarabanovPoints1
Scoring summary
- P33:14Gabriel Vilardi Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (16), Mark Scheifele (25)2–1
- P211:48Morgan Barron Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Neal Pionk (12), Brenden Dillon (8)1–1
- P210:26Alexander Barabanov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (10), Ty Emberson (5)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P210:26Alexander Barabanov Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: William Eklund (10), Ty Emberson (5)WPG 0 – 1 SJ · SJ 51% → 71% +20SJ 51% → 71%+20 pts
- P211:48Morgan Barron Goal (8) Deflected, assists: Neal Pionk (12), Brenden Dillon (8)WPG 1 – 1 SJ · WPG 29% → 49% +20WPG 29% → 49%+20 pts
- P33:14Gabriel Vilardi Goal (8) Tip-In, assists: Nikolaj Ehlers (16), Mark Scheifele (25)WPG 2 – 1 SJ · WPG 49% → 75% +26WPG 49% → 75%+26 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sharks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SJ 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SJ 38%
- Fair odds
- SJ -106
- WPG +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 3.1 – 3.2 SJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | SJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1432 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | −5 | WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.13 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +86 Elo | WPG 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SJ 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SJ 51.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | SJ |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.131st of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 4.231st of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+0.8 | Margin | −2.131st of 31 |
| 9th of 3151.8% | Shot share | 41.3%31st of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.0% | Save percentage | 89.0%27th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 2–830th of 31 |
| 4th of 319–6 | Road vs home | 6–1129th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WPG 0–1 SJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.