Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WPG; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Nikita KucherovGoals1
- Victor HedmanAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints2
Jets- Morgan BarronGoals1
- Vladislav NamestnikovAssists3
- Vladislav NamestnikovPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:23Nikita Kucherov Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (33), Brayden Point (23)2–4
- P317:53Morgan Barron Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Dominic Toninato (3), Vladislav Namestnikov (16)1–4
- P315:13Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (15)1–3
- P29:13Alex Iafallo Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (14), Vladislav Namestnikov (14)1–2
- P24:44Neal Pionk Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Brenden Dillon (7), Morgan Barron (4)1–1
- P16:18Steven Stamkos Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (32), Nikita Kucherov (36)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:18Steven Stamkos Goal (16) Slap Shot, assists: Victor Hedman (32), Nikita Kucherov (36)TB 1 – 0 WPG · TB 44% → 59% +15TB 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P24:44Neal Pionk Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Brenden Dillon (7), Morgan Barron (4)TB 1 – 1 WPG · WPG 36% → 55% +19WPG 36% → 55%+19 pts
- P29:13Alex Iafallo Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Cole Perfetti (14), Vladislav Namestnikov (14)TB 1 – 2 WPG · WPG 55% → 73% +19WPG 55% → 73%+19 pts
- P315:13Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (15)TB 1 – 3 WPG · WPG 91% → >99% +9WPG 91% → >99%+9 pts
- P317:53Morgan Barron Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Dominic Toninato (3), Vladislav Namestnikov (16)TB 1 – 4 WPG · WPG >99% → >99% +0WPG >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Jets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WPG 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WPG 61%
- Fair odds
- WPG -129
- TB +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.3 WPG
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | WPG | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1532 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +14 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · WPG: Connor Hellebuyck: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WPG +79 Elo | WPG 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WPG 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WPG 56.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.214th of 31 |
| 21st of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.52nd of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.73rd of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.1% | Shot share | 51.9%8th of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 91.9%2nd of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 31 |
| 22nd of 317–11 | Road vs home | 11–711th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 0–1 WPG in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.