Vancouver Canucks at New York Islanders, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Filip HronekGoals1
- Conor GarlandAssists2
- Filip HronekPoints2
Islanders- Brock NelsonGoals2
- Kyle PalmieriAssists1
- Brock NelsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:32Dakota Joshua Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–2
- P315:15Brock Nelson Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–2
- P217:24Tyler Myers Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (12), Conor Garland (15)4–1
- P211:11Brock Nelson Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (13), Mathew Barzal (30)3–1
- P210:20Elias Pettersson Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (36), Filip Hronek (31)3–0
- P118:42Quinn Hughes Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–0
- P116:25Filip Hronek Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (12), Conor Garland (14)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:25Filip Hronek Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Ilya Mikheyev (12), Conor Garland (14)VAN 1 – 0 NYI · VAN 44% → 60% +17VAN 44% → 60%+17 pts
- P118:42Quinn Hughes Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: noneVAN 2 – 0 NYI · VAN 61% → 76% +15VAN 61% → 76%+15 pts
- P210:20Elias Pettersson Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (36), Filip Hronek (31)VAN 3 – 0 NYI · VAN 82% → 92% +11VAN 82% → 92%+11 pts
- P211:11Brock Nelson Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Palmieri (13), Mathew Barzal (30)VAN 3 – 1 NYI · NYI 7% → 18% +10NYI 7% → 18%+10 pts
- P217:24Tyler Myers Goal (3) Slap Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (12), Conor Garland (15)VAN 4 – 1 NYI · VAN 86% → 95% +9VAN 86% → 95%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Islanders 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYI 51%
- Fair odds
- NYI -136
- VAN +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 2.9 – 3.4 NYI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | NYI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | VAN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −8 | −7 | VAN: Casey DeSmith: team allows 0.20 more goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.18 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYI +4 Elo | NYI 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYI 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYI 57.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.9 | Goals scored | 3.117th of 31 |
| 4th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+1.3 | Margin | −0.424th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3148.3% | Shot share | 45.3%29th of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.6% | Save percentage | 91.0%10th of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 31 |
| 6th of 3112–9 | Road vs home | 9–1020th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VAN 1–0 NYI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.