Vancouver Canucks at New Jersey Devils, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NJ; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- J.T. MillerGoals2
- Quinn HughesAssists3
- J.T. MillerPoints3
Devils- Erik HaulaGoals1
- Brendan SmithAssists2
- Erik HaulaPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:49Dakota Joshua Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: J.T. Miller (35), Teddy Blueger (10)6–4
- P312:54Nico Hischier Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Brendan Smith (4), Erik Haula (11)5–4
- P311:07Colin Miller Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Chris Tierney (3), Brendan Smith (3)5–3
- P32:35Elias Pettersson Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (17), Quinn Hughes (39)5–2
- P219:49Conor Garland Goal (5) Wrap-around, assists: Dakota Joshua (9), Carson Soucy (4)4–2
- P219:37Erik Haula Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (30), Luke Hughes (16)3–2
- P26:43Colin Miller Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Curtis Lazar (9), Michael McLeod (8)3–1
- P24:37J.T. Miller Goal (18) Slap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (31), Ian Cole (6)3–0
- P23:33J.T. Miller Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Brock Boeser (16), Quinn Hughes (38)2–0
- P20:41Elias Pettersson Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Filip Hronek (28), Quinn Hughes (37)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P20:41Elias Pettersson Goal (16) Tip-In, assists: Filip Hronek (28), Quinn Hughes (37)VAN 1 – 0 NJ · VAN 50% → 67% +17VAN 50% → 67%+17 pts
- P23:33J.T. Miller Goal (17) Deflected, assists: Brock Boeser (16), Quinn Hughes (38)VAN 2 – 0 NJ · VAN 68% → 82% +15VAN 68% → 82%+15 pts
- P219:37Erik Haula Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (30), Luke Hughes (16)VAN 3 – 2 NJ · NJ 11% → 27% +16NJ 11% → 27%+16 pts
- P219:49Conor Garland Goal (5) Wrap-around, assists: Dakota Joshua (9), Carson Soucy (4)VAN 4 – 2 NJ · VAN 73% → 90% +16VAN 73% → 90%+16 pts
- P312:54Nico Hischier Goal (11) Deflected, assists: Brendan Smith (4), Erik Haula (11)VAN 5 – 4 NJ · NJ 2% → 14% +13NJ 2% → 14%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Devils 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NJ 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NJ 48%
- Fair odds
- NJ -101
- VAN +101 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.2 – 3.2 NJ
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | NJ | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | NJ on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +2 | +15 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · NJ: Nico Daws: team allows 0.36 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +12 Elo | VAN 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NJ 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NJ 50.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | NJ |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.8 | Goals scored | 3.67th of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.526th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+1.2 | Margin | +0.116th of 31 |
| 24th of 3148.1% | Shot share | 52.2%7th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3191.7% | Save percentage | 88.8%28th of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 11th of 3110–9 | Road vs home | 9–918th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VAN 0–1 NJ in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.