Vancouver Canucks at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Conor GarlandGoals1
- Teddy BluegerAssists1
- Conor GarlandPoints1
Blues- Robert ThomasGoals1
- Robert ThomasAssists1
- Robert ThomasPoints2
Scoring summary
- P38:03Robert Thomas Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Perunovich (7), Pavel Buchnevich (17)1–2
- P24:22Colton Parayko Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (25), Jordan Kyrou (18)1–1
- P11:57Conor Garland Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (9), Dakota Joshua (8)1–0
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:57Conor Garland Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (9), Dakota Joshua (8)VAN 1 – 0 STL · VAN 47% → 61% +15VAN 47% → 61%+15 pts
- P24:22Colton Parayko Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (25), Jordan Kyrou (18)VAN 1 – 1 STL · STL 34% → 53% +18STL 34% → 53%+18 pts
- P38:03Robert Thomas Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Scott Perunovich (7), Pavel Buchnevich (17)VAN 1 – 2 STL · STL 52% → 80% +29STL 52% → 80%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 47%
- Fair odds
- STL -115
- VAN +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.1 – 3.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −6 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.15 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VAN +19 Elo | VAN 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 53.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.8 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 31 |
| 4th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.216th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+1.2 | Margin | −0.321st of 31 |
| 24th of 3148.2% | Shot share | 48.4%23rd of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.6% | Save percentage | 90.8%11th of 31 |
| 1st of 317–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 7th of 3110–8 | Road vs home | 10–56th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VAN 1–0 STL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.