New York Islanders at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Islanders- Matt MartinGoals1
- Casey CizikasAssists1
- Matt MartinPoints1
Golden Knights- Nicolas RoyGoals2
- Keegan KolesarAssists2
- Jack EichelPoints2
Scoring summary
- P34:20Nicolas Roy Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Keegan Kolesar (6)2–5
- P32:42Matt Martin Goal (2) Backhand, assists: Casey Cizikas (6)2–4
- P30:31Jack Eichel Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Lukas Cormier (1)1–4
- P218:41Nicolas Roy Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Howden (7), Keegan Kolesar (5)1–3
- P217:11Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Chandler Stephenson (13), Mark Stone (27)1–2
- P111:13Mathew Barzal Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (23), Anders Lee (6)1–1
- P16:25Jack Eichel Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (11), Alex Pietrangelo (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:25Jack Eichel Goal (17) Snap Shot, assists: Jonathan Marchessault (11), Alex Pietrangelo (15)NYI 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 55% → 70% +15VGK 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P111:13Mathew Barzal Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Bo Horvat (23), Anders Lee (6)NYI 1 – 1 VGK · NYI 30% → 45% +15NYI 30% → 45%+15 pts
- P217:11Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (5) Tip-In, assists: Chandler Stephenson (13), Mark Stone (27)NYI 1 – 2 VGK · VGK 54% → 75% +22VGK 54% → 75%+22 pts
- P218:41Nicolas Roy Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Brett Howden (7), Keegan Kolesar (5)NYI 1 – 3 VGK · VGK 76% → 90% +15VGK 76% → 90%+15 pts
- P30:31Jack Eichel Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Lukas Cormier (1)NYI 1 – 4 VGK · VGK 91% → 98% +6VGK 91% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 58%
- Fair odds
- VGK -126
- NYI +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYI 3.0 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYI | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | −7 | NYI: Ilya Sorokin: team allows 0.14 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +59 Elo | VGK 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYI | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 3.412th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 31 |
| 24th of 31−0.3 | Margin | +0.58th of 31 |
| 29th of 3145.2% | Shot share | 51.4%12th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 91.1%8th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 31 |
| 22nd of 317–10 | Road vs home | 13–53rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.