Florida Panthers at Vegas Golden Knights, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors VGK; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Matthew TkachukGoals1
- Matthew TkachukAssists2
- Matthew TkachukPoints3
Golden Knights- Pavel DorofeyevGoals1
- Mark StoneAssists1
- Pavel DorofeyevPoints1
Scoring summary
- P35:23Sam Reinhart Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (24), Carter Verhaeghe (16)4–1
- P218:38Carter Verhaeghe Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (23), Gustav Forsling (9)3–1
- P26:15Matthew Tkachuk Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Montour (6), Sam Reinhart (22)2–1
- P114:15Sam Bennett Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (12), Aaron Ekblad (7)1–1
- P13:59Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (26)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:59Pavel Dorofeyev Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Mark Stone (26)FLA 0 – 1 VGK · VGK 55% → 69% +14VGK 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P114:15Sam Bennett Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson (12), Aaron Ekblad (7)FLA 1 – 1 VGK · FLA 30% → 46% +16FLA 30% → 46%+16 pts
- P26:15Matthew Tkachuk Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Montour (6), Sam Reinhart (22)FLA 2 – 1 VGK · FLA 46% → 65% +19FLA 46% → 65%+19 pts
- P218:38Carter Verhaeghe Goal (20) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (23), Gustav Forsling (9)FLA 3 – 1 VGK · FLA 71% → 88% +17FLA 71% → 88%+17 pts
- P35:23Sam Reinhart Goal (25) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (24), Carter Verhaeghe (16)FLA 4 – 1 VGK · FLA 92% → 98% +6FLA 92% → 98%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Golden Knights 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- VGK 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- VGK 53%
- Fair odds
- VGK -121
- FLA +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 3.3 VGK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | VGK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −7 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · VGK: Logan Thompson: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | VGK +23 Elo | VGK 53.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | VGK 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | VGK 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.410th of 31 |
| 4th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 31 |
| 10th of 31+0.4 | Margin | +0.67th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3155.7% | Shot share | 51.6%10th of 31 |
| 6th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 91.2%7th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 10th of 3110–9 | Road vs home | 13–42nd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 1–0 VGK in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.