Vancouver Canucks at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canucks- Elias PetterssonGoals2
- Elias PetterssonAssists2
- Elias PetterssonPoints4
Rangers- Vincent TrocheckGoals2
- Alexis LafreniereAssists2
- Vincent TrocheckPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:29Elias Pettersson Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Boeser (19), Tyler Myers (15)6–3
- P33:36Vincent Trocheck Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (15)5–3
- P216:47Nils Hoglander Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Pius Suter (4), Filip Hronek (30)5–2
- P215:33Elias Pettersson Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (11), Filip Hronek (29)4–2
- P28:19Artemi Panarin Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (14)3–2
- P119:44Brock Boeser Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Elias Pettersson (33), Quinn Hughes (40)3–1
- P16:45Nils Hoglander Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Nils Aman (3), Sam Lafferty (9)2–1
- P14:31J.T. Miller Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (32), Brock Boeser (18)1–1
- P13:38Vincent Trocheck Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mika Zibanejad (25), Artemi Panarin (31)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P14:31J.T. Miller Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: Elias Pettersson (32), Brock Boeser (18)VAN 1 – 1 NYR · VAN 31% → 45% +14VAN 31% → 45%+14 pts
- P16:45Nils Hoglander Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Nils Aman (3), Sam Lafferty (9)VAN 2 – 1 NYR · VAN 46% → 61% +15VAN 46% → 61%+15 pts
- P119:44Brock Boeser Goal (25) Backhand, assists: Elias Pettersson (33), Quinn Hughes (40)VAN 3 – 1 NYR · VAN 64% → 79% +15VAN 64% → 79%+15 pts
- P28:19Artemi Panarin Goal (26) Snap Shot, assists: Alexis Lafrenière (14)VAN 3 – 2 NYR · NYR 18% → 34% +16NYR 18% → 34%+16 pts
- P215:33Elias Pettersson Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Teddy Blueger (11), Filip Hronek (29)VAN 4 – 2 NYR · VAN 69% → 86% +17VAN 69% → 86%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 54%
- Fair odds
- NYR -121
- VAN +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VAN 3.0 – 3.3 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VAN | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | 0 | −2 | VAN: Thatcher Demko: team allows 0.00 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.05 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +25 Elo | NYR 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VAN | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 313.8 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 31 |
| 4th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 2.88th of 31 |
| 1st of 31+1.2 | Margin | +0.65th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.6% | Shot share | 50.1%16th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 91.0%9th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 31 |
| 9th of 3111–9 | Road vs home | 12–54th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VAN 0–1 NYR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.