New York Rangers at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Vincent TrocheckGoals1
- Vincent TrocheckAssists1
- Vincent TrocheckPoints2
Canadiens- Brendan GallagherGoals1
- Jesse YlonenAssists1
- Brendan GallagherPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Cole Caufield Goal Snap Shot0–1
- P39:30Adam Fox Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jimmy Vesey (5), Will Cuylle (4)3–3
- P214:29Artemi Panarin Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (28)2–3
- P210:28Vincent Trocheck Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Erik Gustafsson (17), Artemi Panarin (30)1–3
- P22:39Joel Armia Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitchell Stephens (1), Michael Pezzetta (6)0–3
- P21:09Sean Monahan Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Jesse Ylönen (4)0–2
- P111:37Brendan Gallagher Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (10), David Savard (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:37Brendan Gallagher Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: Jake Evans (10), David Savard (5)NYR 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 53% → 68% +16MTL 53% → 68%+16 pts
- P21:09Sean Monahan Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Jesse Ylönen (4)NYR 0 – 2 MTL · MTL 70% → 83% +14MTL 70% → 83%+14 pts
- P22:39Joel Armia Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitchell Stephens (1), Michael Pezzetta (6)NYR 0 – 3 MTL · MTL 84% → 93% +9MTL 84% → 93%+9 pts
- P214:29Artemi Panarin Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (28)NYR 2 – 3 MTL · NYR 12% → 27% +15NYR 12% → 27%+15 pts
- P39:30Adam Fox Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Jimmy Vesey (5), Will Cuylle (4)NYR 3 – 3 MTL · NYR 18% → 49% +30NYR 18% → 49%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 45%
- Fair odds
- MTL -113
- NYR +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.1 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | +4 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +31 Elo | NYR 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 31 |
| 7th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.527th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.728th of 31 |
| 19th of 3149.7% | Shot share | 46.4%27th of 31 |
| 9th of 3191.1% | Save percentage | 90.0%18th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3113–6 | Road vs home | 7–1228th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.