Buffalo Sabres at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals2
- Jeff SkinnerAssists3
- Jeff SkinnerPoints4
Canadiens- Joel ArmiaGoals1
- Joel ArmiaPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:32Tage Thompson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (15), Jack Quinn (1)6–1
- P314:31Rasmus Dahlin Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Samuelsson (5), Casey Mittelstadt (22)5–1
- P38:35Tage Thompson Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Jeff Skinner (14), Alex Tuch (17)4–1
- P36:45Jack Quinn Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (14), Connor Clifton (10)3–1
- P213:19Joel Armia Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–1
- P26:59Jeff Skinner Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (16), Tage Thompson (12)2–0
- P25:33Casey Mittelstadt Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (13), Rasmus Dahlin (20)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P25:33Casey Mittelstadt Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Jeff Skinner (13), Rasmus Dahlin (20)BUF 1 – 0 MTL · BUF 46% → 65% +19BUF 46% → 65%+19 pts
- P26:59Jeff Skinner Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Tuch (16), Tage Thompson (12)BUF 2 – 0 MTL · BUF 65% → 81% +16BUF 65% → 81%+16 pts
- P213:19Joel Armia Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBUF 2 – 1 MTL · MTL 16% → 32% +17MTL 16% → 32%+17 pts
- P36:45Jack Quinn Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: JJ Peterka (14), Connor Clifton (10)BUF 3 – 1 MTL · BUF 76% → 93% +17BUF 76% → 93%+17 pts
- P38:35Tage Thompson Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Jeff Skinner (14), Alex Tuch (17)BUF 4 – 1 MTL · BUF 95% → >99% +5BUF 95% → >99%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 56%
- Fair odds
- MTL -124
- BUF +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.0 – 3.3 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −13 | −7 | BUF: Devon Levi: team allows 0.33 more goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · MTL: Jake Allen: team allows 0.17 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +45 Elo | MTL 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.926th of 31 |
| 27th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.524th of 31 |
| 28th of 31−0.6 | Margin | −0.626th of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.8% | Shot share | 46.3%27th of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.5% | Save percentage | 90.2%16th of 31 |
| 18th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 23rd of 317–12 | Road vs home | 7–1126th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 0–2 MTL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.