Florida Panthers at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Sam ReinhartGoals3
- Aleksander BarkovAssists4
- Matthew TkachukPoints4
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals1
- Mikko RantanenAssists2
- Valeri NichushkinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:54Carter Verhaeghe Goal (22) Backhand, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (27), Gustav Forsling (11)8–4
- P316:17Matthew Tkachuk Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (17), Aaron Ekblad (8)7–4
- P38:59Kevin Stenlund Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Ryan Lomberg (1)6–4
- P35:59Sam Reinhart Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (26), Aleksander Barkov (32)5–4
- P33:31Jonathan Drouin Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (5)4–4
- P28:50Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (31), Evan Rodrigues (19)4–3
- P24:35Valeri Nichushkin Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (38), Mikko Rantanen (30)3–3
- P20:52Josh Manson Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Valeri Nichushkin (20), Logan O'Connor (9)3–2
- P20:21Cale Makar Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (43), Mikko Rantanen (29)3–1
- P17:41Sam Reinhart Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (30), Evan Rodrigues (18)3–0
- P13:02Sam Reinhart Goal (26) Tip-In, assists: Gustav Forsling (10), Aleksander Barkov (29)2–0
- P11:10Carter Verhaeghe Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (25), Sam Bennett (7)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:35Valeri Nichushkin Goal (20) Tip-In, assists: Cale Makar (38), Mikko Rantanen (30)FLA 3 – 3 COL · COL 35% → 54% +19COL 35% → 54%+19 pts
- P28:50Oliver Ekman-Larsson Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Aleksander Barkov (31), Evan Rodrigues (19)FLA 4 – 3 COL · FLA 46% → 66% +20FLA 46% → 66%+20 pts
- P33:31Jonathan Drouin Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (5)FLA 4 – 4 COL · COL 26% → 53% +26COL 26% → 53%+26 pts
- P35:59Sam Reinhart Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (26), Aleksander Barkov (32)FLA 5 – 4 COL · FLA 48% → 76% +28FLA 48% → 76%+28 pts
- P38:59Kevin Stenlund Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Ryan Lomberg (1)FLA 6 – 4 COL · FLA 79% → 95% +16FLA 79% → 95%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 55%
- Fair odds
- COL -122
- FLA +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −5 | FLA: Sergei Bobrovsky: team allows 0.15 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) · COL: Ivan Prosvetov: team allows 0.12 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +33 Elo | COL 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.013th of 31 |
| 9th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +0.74th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3155.7% | Shot share | 53.0%6th of 31 |
| 6th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 89.9%22nd of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 31 |
| 7th of 3111–9 | Road vs home | 15–41st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.