Vegas Golden Knights at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Golden Knights
Avalanche- Valeri NichushkinGoals2
- Mikko RantanenAssists2
- Valeri NichushkinPoints2
Scoring summary
- P39:20Logan O'Connor Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Caleb Jones (4)0–3
- P211:44Valeri Nichushkin Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (32), Nathan MacKinnon (45)0–2
- P119:46Valeri Nichushkin Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (31), Jonathan Drouin (13)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:46Valeri Nichushkin Goal (21) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (31), Jonathan Drouin (13)VGK 0 – 1 COL · COL 55% → 72% +17COL 55% → 72%+17 pts
- P211:44Valeri Nichushkin Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (32), Nathan MacKinnon (45)VGK 0 – 2 COL · COL 74% → 88% +14COL 74% → 88%+14 pts
- P39:20Logan O'Connor Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Caleb Jones (4)VGK 0 – 3 COL · COL 96% → >99% +3COL 96% → >99%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 60%
- Fair odds
- COL -127
- VGK +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- VGK 3.0 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | VGK | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −19 | 0 | VGK: Jiri Patera: team allows 0.48 more goals than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈23 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +68 Elo | COL 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 55.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| VGK | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.73rd of 31 |
| 7th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 3.217th of 31 |
| 7th of 31+0.6 | Margin | +0.68th of 31 |
| 11th of 3151.4% | Shot share | 53.0%6th of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 89.5%24th of 31 |
| 24th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 31 |
| 19th of 319–10 | Road vs home | 16–51st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
VGK 1–0 COL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.