Boston Bruins at Colorado Avalanche, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors COL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bruins- Brad MarchandGoals2
- Charlie CoyleAssists1
- Brad MarchandPoints2
Avalanche- Logan O'ConnorGoals1
- Nathan MacKinnonAssists1
- Mikko RantanenPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Valeri Nichushkin Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P35:46Brad Marchand Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Charlie Coyle (16), Matt Grzelcyk (4)3–3
- P217:56Sam Malinski Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Johansen (5)2–3
- P210:05John Beecher Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (9), Brandon Carlo (8)2–2
- P22:23Logan O'Connor Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–2
- P116:13Mikko Rantanen Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (44), Cale Makar (39)1–1
- P111:21Brad Marchand Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (15), David Pastrnak (32)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:13Mikko Rantanen Goal (21) Tip-In, assists: Nathan MacKinnon (44), Cale Makar (39)BOS 1 – 1 COL · COL 37% → 54% +17COL 37% → 54%+17 pts
- P22:23Logan O'Connor Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBOS 1 – 2 COL · COL 54% → 71% +17COL 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P210:05John Beecher Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (9), Brandon Carlo (8)BOS 2 – 2 COL · BOS 27% → 46% +19BOS 27% → 46%+19 pts
- P217:56Sam Malinski Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Johansen (5)BOS 2 – 3 COL · COL 53% → 75% +22COL 53% → 75%+22 pts
- P35:46Brad Marchand Goal (17) Tip-In, assists: Charlie Coyle (16), Matt Grzelcyk (4)BOS 3 – 3 COL · BOS 21% → 48% +27BOS 21% → 48%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Avalanche 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- COL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- COL 55%
- Fair odds
- COL -122
- BOS +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.0 – 3.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −1 | 0 | BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +33 Elo | COL 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | COL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | COL 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BOS | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 3.72nd of 31 |
| 5th of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.217th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+0.7 | Margin | +0.58th of 31 |
| 21st of 3149.0% | Shot share | 52.8%6th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3191.8% | Save percentage | 89.5%25th of 31 |
| 12th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 6th of 3112–8 | Road vs home | 15–51st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.