Pittsburgh Penguins at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Sidney CrosbyGoals1
- Kris LetangAssists3
- Sidney CrosbyPoints3
Bruins- Brad MarchandGoals2
- David PastrnakAssists2
- David PastrnakPoints3
Scoring summary
- P311:19Sidney Crosby Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (20)6–5
- P33:08Brad Marchand Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (15)5–5
- P219:24Jake DeBrusk Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Carlo (7), Morgan Geekie (10)5–4
- P29:51Morgan Geekie Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (30), Charlie McAvoy (22)5–3
- P26:38Jeff Carter Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kris Letang (23), Bryan Rust (11)5–2
- P115:58Lars Eller Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (8), Erik Karlsson (19)4–2
- P17:21Jake Guentzel Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (19), Kris Letang (22)3–2
- P16:39David Pastrnak Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Hampus Lindholm (10), Morgan Geekie (9)2–2
- P16:17Ryan Graves Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (18), Rickard Rakell (9)2–1
- P15:04Drew O'Connor Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Kris Letang (21), Lars Eller (6)1–1
- P10:41Brad Marchand Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (29), Charlie McAvoy (21)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P16:39David Pastrnak Goal (23) Backhand, assists: Hampus Lindholm (10), Morgan Geekie (9)PIT 2 – 2 BOS · BOS 40% → 55% +15BOS 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P17:21Jake Guentzel Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Sidney Crosby (19), Kris Letang (22)PIT 3 – 2 BOS · PIT 45% → 60% +15PIT 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P219:24Jake DeBrusk Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Carlo (7), Morgan Geekie (10)PIT 5 – 4 BOS · BOS 12% → 29% +17BOS 12% → 29%+17 pts
- P33:08Brad Marchand Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Charlie Coyle (15)PIT 5 – 5 BOS · BOS 27% → 53% +26BOS 27% → 53%+26 pts
- P311:19Sidney Crosby Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Erik Karlsson (20)PIT 6 – 5 BOS · PIT 48% → 82% +34PIT 48% → 82%+34 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Fair odds
- BOS -126
- PIT +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | +6 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BOS: Jeremy Swayman: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +58 Elo | BOS 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.215th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.7 | Goals allowed | 2.53rd of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.74th of 31 |
| 12th of 3151.4% | Shot share | 49.1%21st of 31 |
| 3rd of 3191.7% | Save percentage | 92.2%1st of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 31 |
| 20th of 318–10 | Road vs home | 10–56th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.