Tampa Bay Lightning at Boston Bruins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Brayden PointGoals2
- Nikita KucherovAssists2
- Nikita KucherovPoints3
Bruins- Trent FredericGoals2
- Matthew PoitrasAssists2
- Trent FredericPoints2
Scoring summary
- P317:14Charlie Coyle Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–7
- P316:34Jake DeBrusk Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–6
- P31:35Morgan Geekie Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (31), Hampus Lindholm (12)3–5
- P215:53Brayden Point Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (39), Brandon Hagel (21)3–4
- P28:23David Pastrnak Goal (24) Wrist Shot, assists: Pavel Zacha (14)2–4
- P27:53Nikita Kucherov Goal (28) Wrist Shot, assists: none2–3
- P21:49Trent Frederic Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Matt Grzelcyk (3), Matthew Poitras (10)1–3
- P114:56Charlie McAvoy Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (8), Matthew Poitras (9)1–2
- P14:42Trent Frederic Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Shattenkirk (7), Hampus Lindholm (11)1–1
- P10:21Brayden Point Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (38)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:21Brayden Point Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (38)TB 1 – 0 BOS · TB 45% → 59% +15TB 45% → 59%+15 pts
- P14:42Trent Frederic Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Kevin Shattenkirk (7), Hampus Lindholm (11)TB 1 – 1 BOS · BOS 40% → 55% +15BOS 40% → 55%+15 pts
- P114:56Charlie McAvoy Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Danton Heinen (8), Matthew Poitras (9)TB 1 – 2 BOS · BOS 55% → 71% +16BOS 55% → 71%+16 pts
- P215:53Brayden Point Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (39), Brandon Hagel (21)TB 3 – 4 BOS · TB 11% → 25% +15TB 11% → 25%+15 pts
- P31:35Morgan Geekie Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: David Pastrnak (31), Hampus Lindholm (12)TB 3 – 5 BOS · BOS 77% → 92% +15BOS 77% → 92%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Bruins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 57%
- Fair odds
- BOS -125
- TB +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.3 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | −4 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · BOS: Linus Ullmark: team allows 0.10 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +52 Elo | BOS 57.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.313th of 31 |
| 21st of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 2.65th of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | +0.65th of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.4% | Shot share | 49.0%21st of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 91.9%2nd of 31 |
| 8th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 31 |
| 22nd of 318–12 | Road vs home | 10–68th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 1–0 BOS in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.