Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lightning- Darren RaddyshGoals2
- Luke GlendeningAssists1
- Darren RaddyshPoints2
Wild- Zach BogosianGoals1
- Alex GoligoskiAssists1
- Zach BogosianPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:19Brandon Hagel Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: none4–1
- P315:35Zach Bogosian Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Goligoski (6), Ryan Hartman (7)3–1
- P32:00Victor Hedman Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (37), Nicholas Paul (11)3–0
- P27:00Darren Raddysh Goal (2) Wrap-around, assists: Conor Sheary (7), Tyler Motte (2)2–0
- P24:31Darren Raddysh Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Luke Glendening (1)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P24:31Darren Raddysh Goal (1) Backhand, assists: Luke Glendening (1)TB 1 – 0 MIN · TB 46% → 65% +19TB 46% → 65%+19 pts
- P27:00Darren Raddysh Goal (2) Wrap-around, assists: Conor Sheary (7), Tyler Motte (2)TB 2 – 0 MIN · TB 66% → 81% +16TB 66% → 81%+16 pts
- P32:00Victor Hedman Goal (6) Slap Shot, assists: Nikita Kucherov (37), Nicholas Paul (11)TB 3 – 0 MIN · TB 90% → 97% +8TB 90% → 97%+8 pts
- P315:35Zach Bogosian Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Alex Goligoski (6), Ryan Hartman (7)TB 3 – 1 MIN · MIN <1% → <1% +0MIN <1% → <1%+0 pts
- P319:19Brandon Hagel Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: noneTB 4 – 1 MIN · TB >99% → 100% +0TB >99% → 100%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Wild 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 54%
- Fair odds
- MIN -121
- TB +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.0 – 3.3 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −4 | TB: Andrei Vasilevskiy: team allows 0.03 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) · MIN: Marc-Andre Fleury: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +29 Elo | MIN 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| TB | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.119th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.218th of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.2 | Margin | −0.119th of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.3% | Shot share | 50.0%16th of 31 |
| 25th of 3189.4% | Save percentage | 90.0%21st of 31 |
| 14th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 31 |
| 24th of 317–12 | Road vs home | 10–712th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.