Ottawa Senators at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Senators- Claude GirouxGoals2
- Ridly GreigAssists1
- Claude GirouxPoints2
Sabres- Tage ThompsonGoals2
- Rasmus DahlinAssists2
- Tage ThompsonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P319:57Dylan Cozens Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–5
- P311:15Claude Giroux Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: none3–4
- P30:43Claude Giroux Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Ridly Greig (10)2–4
- P24:52Peyton Krebs Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (4)1–4
- P119:32Tage Thompson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (22), Jack Quinn (2)1–3
- P117:28Tage Thompson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (21)1–2
- P115:06Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: none1–1
- P19:14JJ Peterka Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (15), Owen Power (15)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P19:14JJ Peterka Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Cozens (15), Owen Power (15)OTT 0 – 1 BUF · BUF 55% → 70% +15BUF 55% → 70%+15 pts
- P115:06Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: noneOTT 1 – 1 BUF · OTT 30% → 45% +16OTT 30% → 45%+16 pts
- P117:28Tage Thompson Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (21)OTT 1 – 2 BUF · BUF 54% → 71% +16BUF 54% → 71%+16 pts
- P119:32Tage Thompson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Rasmus Dahlin (22), Jack Quinn (2)OTT 1 – 3 BUF · BUF 71% → 84% +13BUF 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P311:15Claude Giroux Goal (12) Slap Shot, assists: noneOTT 3 – 4 BUF · OTT 2% → 16% +13OTT 2% → 16%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 57%
- Fair odds
- BUF -124
- OTT +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OTT 3.0 – 3.3 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OTT | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +13 | OTT: Anton Forsberg: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.32 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +46 Elo | BUF 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| OTT | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 3.022nd of 31 |
| 29th of 313.6 | Goals allowed | 3.523rd of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.3 | Margin | −0.526th of 31 |
| 13th of 3151.1% | Shot share | 50.9%14th of 31 |
| 29th of 3188.8% | Save percentage | 88.9%28th of 31 |
| 24th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 28th of 314–11 | Road vs home | 7–1127th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
OTT 1–1 BUF in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.