Seattle Kraken at Buffalo Sabres, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BUF; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Jaden SchwartzGoals1
- Will BorgenAssists2
- Jaden SchwartzPoints2
Sabres- Alex TuchGoals1
- Alex TuchAssists1
- Jeff SkinnerPoints2
Scoring summary
- P216:13Matty Beniers Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Borgen (15)5–2
- P211:34Jaden Schwartz Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Tanev (2), Will Borgen (14)4–2
- P22:08Alex Wennberg Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Jaden Schwartz (8), Brian Dumoulin (5)3–2
- P20:50Alex Tuch Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Jeff Skinner (16), Casey Mittelstadt (24)2–2
- P118:50Vince Dunn Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (4), Eeli Tolvanen (16)2–1
- P113:55Yanni Gourde Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (15), Oliver Bjorkstrand (19)1–1
- P14:57Jeff Skinner Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Casey Mittelstadt (23), Alex Tuch (18)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:55Yanni Gourde Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (15), Oliver Bjorkstrand (19)SEA 1 – 1 BUF · SEA 30% → 46% +16SEA 30% → 46%+16 pts
- P118:50Vince Dunn Goal (8) Snap Shot, assists: Andre Burakovsky (4), Eeli Tolvanen (16)SEA 2 – 1 BUF · SEA 46% → 64% +17SEA 46% → 64%+17 pts
- P20:50Alex Tuch Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Jeff Skinner (16), Casey Mittelstadt (24)SEA 2 – 2 BUF · BUF 36% → 54% +18BUF 36% → 54%+18 pts
- P22:08Alex Wennberg Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Jaden Schwartz (8), Brian Dumoulin (5)SEA 3 – 2 BUF · SEA 47% → 65% +18SEA 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P211:34Jaden Schwartz Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Brandon Tanev (2), Will Borgen (14)SEA 4 – 2 BUF · SEA 68% → 84% +16SEA 68% → 84%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Sabres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BUF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BUF 52%
- Fair odds
- BUF -119
- SEA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.0 – 3.3 BUF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | BUF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +20 | −7 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.50 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · BUF: Devon Levi: team allows 0.19 more goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BUF +12 Elo | BUF 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BUF 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BUF 54.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.7 | Goals scored | 3.021st of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.423rd of 31 |
| 20th of 31−0.2 | Margin | −0.425th of 31 |
| 18th of 3149.7% | Shot share | 50.7%14th of 31 |
| 10th of 3191.0% | Save percentage | 89.1%28th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 31 |
| 22nd of 317–11 | Road vs home | 7–1026th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.