Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PIT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sabres- Alex TuchGoals1
- Connor CliftonAssists1
- Zemgus GirgensonsPoints1
Penguins- Rickard RakellGoals1
- Evgeni MalkinAssists1
- Rickard RakellPoints1
Scoring summary
- P318:24Rasmus Dahlin Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–1
- P315:22Zemgus Girgensons Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (3), Mattias Samuelsson (6)2–1
- P37:49Rickard Rakell Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (21), Evgeni Malkin (19)1–1
- P12:53Alex Tuch Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Clifton (11), Tage Thompson (13)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:53Alex Tuch Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Connor Clifton (11), Tage Thompson (13)BUF 1 – 0 PIT · BUF 45% → 60% +15BUF 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P37:49Rickard Rakell Goal (4) Tip-In, assists: Erik Karlsson (21), Evgeni Malkin (19)BUF 1 – 1 PIT · PIT 23% → 52% +30PIT 23% → 52%+30 pts
- P315:22Zemgus Girgensons Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Eric Robinson (3), Mattias Samuelsson (6)BUF 2 – 1 PIT · BUF 48% → 90% +41BUF 48% → 90%+41 pts
- P318:24Rasmus Dahlin Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: noneBUF 3 – 1 PIT · BUF 99% → >99% +1BUF 99% → >99%+1 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Penguins 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 57%
- Fair odds
- PIT -124
- BUF +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BUF 3.0 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BUF | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −3 | BUF: Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen: team allows 0.21 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · PIT: Tristan Jarry: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +49 Elo | PIT 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 55.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| BUF | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 313.0 | Goals scored | 3.118th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.86th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.5 | Margin | +0.312th of 31 |
| 14th of 3150.9% | Shot share | 51.5%10th of 31 |
| 29th of 3188.7% | Save percentage | 91.5%5th of 31 |
| 18th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 22nd of 318–12 | Road vs home | 9–815th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BUF 1–1 PIT in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.