Colorado Avalanche at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Avalanche- Cale MakarGoals1
- Cale MakarAssists2
- Cale MakarPoints3
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals1
- Nick SuzukiAssists2
- Cole CaufieldPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:50Joel Armia Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Sean Monahan (14), David Savard (7)3–4
- P39:37Devon Toews Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (34), Cale Makar (41)3–3
- P31:52Cole Caufield Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (25), Mike Matheson (25)2–3
- P216:08Rafael Harvey-Pinard Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Evans (11), Brendan Gallagher (8)2–2
- P21:01Cale Makar Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (7), Nathan MacKinnon (47)2–1
- P17:17Juraj Slafkovsky Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (24), Cole Caufield (18)1–1
- P14:28Ross Colton Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonathan Drouin (15), Cale Makar (40)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P21:01Cale Makar Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Samuel Girard (7), Nathan MacKinnon (47)COL 2 – 1 MTL · COL 48% → 66% +18COL 48% → 66%+18 pts
- P216:08Rafael Harvey-Pinard Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Evans (11), Brendan Gallagher (8)COL 2 – 2 MTL · MTL 30% → 52% +22MTL 30% → 52%+22 pts
- P31:52Cole Caufield Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (25), Mike Matheson (25)COL 2 – 3 MTL · MTL 51% → 76% +24MTL 51% → 76%+24 pts
- P39:37Devon Toews Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mikko Rantanen (34), Cale Makar (41)COL 3 – 3 MTL · COL 18% → 49% +31COL 18% → 49%+31 pts
- P315:50Joel Armia Goal (7) Backhand, assists: Sean Monahan (14), David Savard (7)COL 3 – 4 MTL · MTL 51% → 92% +41MTL 51% → 92%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 43%
- Fair odds
- MTL -111
- COL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +4 | −13 | COL: Alexandar Georgiev: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈24 weighted starts) · MTL: Jake Allen: team allows 0.32 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +51 Elo | COL 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 52.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| COL | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 313.7 | Goals scored | 2.827th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.524th of 31 |
| 4th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.727th of 31 |
| 6th of 3153.1% | Shot share | 45.7%28th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 90.5%14th of 31 |
| 3rd of 318–2 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 31 |
| 10th of 3110–8 | Road vs home | 8–1428th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.