Montreal Canadiens at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Canadiens- David SavardGoals1
- Michael PezzettaAssists1
- David SavardPoints1
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals1
- Sean CouturierAssists1
- Morgan FrostPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Sean Couturier Goal Wrist Shot0–1
- P28:30Morgan Frost Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Drysdale (5), Tyson Foerster (11)2–2
- P115:41Owen Tippett Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (16), Sean Couturier (18)2–1
- P111:28David Savard Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Michael Pezzetta (7), Juraj Slafkovsky (11)2–0
- P11:29Sean Monahan Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Justin Barron (6), Kaiden Guhle (8)1–0
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:29Sean Monahan Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Justin Barron (6), Kaiden Guhle (8)MTL 1 – 0 PHI · MTL 44% → 59% +15MTL 44% → 59%+15 pts
- P111:28David Savard Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Michael Pezzetta (7), Juraj Slafkovsky (11)MTL 2 – 0 PHI · MTL 61% → 75% +14MTL 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P115:41Owen Tippett Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Travis Konecny (16), Sean Couturier (18)MTL 2 – 1 PHI · PHI 24% → 38% +15PHI 24% → 38%+15 pts
- P28:30Morgan Frost Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Drysdale (5), Tyson Foerster (11)MTL 2 – 2 PHI · PHI 35% → 54% +20PHI 35% → 54%+20 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 60%
- Fair odds
- PHI -127
- MTL +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MTL 3.0 – 3.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MTL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +5 | MTL: Cayden Primeau: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PHI: Samuel Ersson: team allows 0.13 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈14 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +68 Elo | PHI 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| MTL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 25th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 2.98th of 31 |
| 27th of 31−0.7 | Margin | 0.015th of 31 |
| 27th of 3146.1% | Shot share | 53.5%5th of 31 |
| 16th of 3190.2% | Save percentage | 90.6%13th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 31 |
| 16th of 319–9 | Road vs home | 9–1020th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.