Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Penguins- Evgeni MalkinGoals1
- Evgeni MalkinAssists1
- Evgeni MalkinPoints2
Flyers- Owen TippettGoals1
- Joel FarabeeAssists1
- Owen TippettPoints1
Scoring summary
- P34:29Evgeni Malkin Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (9)4–1
- P28:07Chad Ruhwedel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (12), Ryan Graves (5)3–1
- P114:55Owen Tippett Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Egor Zamula (7), Joel Farabee (18)2–1
- P17:37Erik Karlsson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jansen Harkins (3), Jeff Carter (2)2–0
- P10:45Rickard Rakell Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (20), Jake Guentzel (26)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:45Rickard Rakell Goal (5) Snap Shot, assists: Evgeni Malkin (20), Jake Guentzel (26)PIT 1 – 0 PHI · PIT 45% → 60% +15PIT 45% → 60%+15 pts
- P17:37Erik Karlsson Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jansen Harkins (3), Jeff Carter (2)PIT 2 – 0 PHI · PIT 61% → 75% +14PIT 61% → 75%+14 pts
- P114:55Owen Tippett Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Egor Zamula (7), Joel Farabee (18)PIT 2 – 1 PHI · PHI 23% → 38% +15PHI 23% → 38%+15 pts
- P28:07Chad Ruhwedel Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Bryan Rust (12), Ryan Graves (5)PIT 3 – 1 PHI · PIT 66% → 82% +16PIT 66% → 82%+16 pts
- P34:29Evgeni Malkin Goal (15) Snap Shot, assists: Drew O'Connor (9)PIT 4 – 1 PHI · PIT 91% → 98% +7PIT 91% → 98%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Flyers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Fair odds
- PHI -122
- PIT +122 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +1 | −4 | PIT: Alex Nedeljkovic: team allows 0.02 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Carter Hart: team allows 0.09 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +33 Elo | PHI 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 55.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| PIT | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 2.924th of 31 |
| 6th of 312.8 | Goals allowed | 2.89th of 31 |
| 13th of 31+0.3 | Margin | +0.115th of 31 |
| 9th of 3151.7% | Shot share | 53.7%5th of 31 |
| 4th of 3191.4% | Save percentage | 90.7%13th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 31 |
| 18th of 319–10 | Road vs home | 9–917th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
PIT 0–2 PHI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.