Edmonton Oilers at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals1
- Leon DraisaitlAssists1
- Leon DraisaitlPoints2
Canadiens- Cole CaufieldGoals1
- Mike MathesonAssists1
- Cole CaufieldPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT2:01Evan Bouchard Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (41), Leon Draisaitl (25)2–1
- P30:38Leon Draisaitl Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (14), Evander Kane (11)1–1
- P11:43Cole Caufield Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (23), Mike Matheson (24)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:43Cole Caufield Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Suzuki (23), Mike Matheson (24)EDM 0 – 1 MTL · MTL 53% → 67% +14MTL 53% → 67%+14 pts
- P30:38Leon Draisaitl Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Warren Foegele (14), Evander Kane (11)EDM 1 – 1 MTL · EDM 25% → 48% +24EDM 25% → 48%+24 pts
- OT2:01Evan Bouchard Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (41), Leon Draisaitl (25)EDM 2 – 1 MTL · EDM 49% → 95% +45EDM 49% → 95%+45 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 46%
- Fair odds
- MTL -113
- EDM +113 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.1 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +13 | +4 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.34 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈21 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +31 Elo | EDM 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 53.1% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 2.826th of 31 |
| 13th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.5 | Margin | −0.727th of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.9% | Shot share | 45.9%28th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 90.4%14th of 31 |
| 1st of 319–1 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 31 |
| 9th of 3111–9 | Road vs home | 8–1327th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.