Edmonton Oilers at Chicago Blackhawks, NHL forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Leon DraisaitlGoals1
- Warren FoegeleAssists1
- Leon DraisaitlPoints1
Blackhawks- Jason DickinsonGoals1
- Jason DickinsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P21:32Connor McDavid Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (12), Warren Foegele (13)2–1
- P18:05Leon Draisaitl Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (9), Darnell Nurse (10)1–1
- P15:52Jason Dickinson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:52Jason Dickinson Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: noneEDM 0 – 1 CHI · CHI 52% → 67% +15CHI 52% → 67%+15 pts
- P18:05Leon Draisaitl Goal (19) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan McLeod (9), Darnell Nurse (10)EDM 1 – 1 CHI · EDM 33% → 48% +15EDM 33% → 48%+15 pts
- P21:32Connor McDavid Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Mattias Ekholm (12), Warren Foegele (13)EDM 2 – 1 CHI · EDM 48% → 66% +18EDM 48% → 66%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blackhawks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI 42%
- Fair odds
- CHI -110
- EDM +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.1 – 3.2 CHI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1445 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +12 | −2 | EDM: Stuart Skinner: team allows 0.29 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · CHI: Petr Mrazek: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | EDM +56 Elo | EDM 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 52.4% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 2.430th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.729th of 31 |
| 9th of 31+0.5 | Margin | −1.330th of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.7% | Shot share | 44.1%30th of 31 |
| 24th of 3189.5% | Save percentage | 89.5%23rd of 31 |
| 4th of 317–3 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 31 |
| 15th of 319–9 | Road vs home | 8–1023rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
EDM 1–0 CHI in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.