San Jose Sharks at Montreal Canadiens, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MTL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Luke KuninGoals1
- Mikael GranlundAssists1
- Luke KuninPoints1
Canadiens- Josh AndersonGoals1
- Mike MathesonAssists2
- Mike MathesonPoints2
Scoring summary
- P316:26Josh Anderson Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Mike Matheson (23), Cole Caufield (17)3–2
- P216:44Nikita Okhotiuk Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (23), William Eklund (11)3–1
- P117:46Brendan Gallagher Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (22), David Savard (6)2–1
- P117:25Fabian Zetterlund Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (16), Filip Zadina (7)2–0
- P15:19Luke Kunin Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: none1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P15:19Luke Kunin Goal (6) Snap Shot, assists: noneSJ 1 – 0 MTL · SJ 48% → 63% +15SJ 48% → 63%+15 pts
- P117:25Fabian Zetterlund Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (16), Filip Zadina (7)SJ 2 – 0 MTL · SJ 65% → 79% +14SJ 65% → 79%+14 pts
- P117:46Brendan Gallagher Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Mike Matheson (22), David Savard (6)SJ 2 – 1 MTL · MTL 21% → 35% +14MTL 21% → 35%+14 pts
- P216:44Nikita Okhotiuk Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Mikael Granlund (23), William Eklund (11)SJ 3 – 1 MTL · SJ 71% → 87% +16SJ 71% → 87%+16 pts
- P316:26Josh Anderson Goal (7) Deflected, assists: Mike Matheson (23), Cole Caufield (17)SJ 3 – 2 MTL · MTL <1% → 7% +7MTL <1% → 7%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Canadiens 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MTL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MTL 59%
- Fair odds
- MTL -110
- SJ +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 3.1 – 3.2 MTL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | MTL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1424 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | MTL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −1 | +4 | SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.01 more goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) · MTL: Sam Montembeault: team allows 0.11 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MTL +60 Elo | MTL 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MTL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MTL 52.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 312.0 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 31 |
| 31st of 314.2 | Goals allowed | 3.525th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−2.2 | Margin | −0.727th of 31 |
| 31st of 3141.2% | Shot share | 45.8%28th of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.0% | Save percentage | 90.3%16th of 31 |
| 31st of 310–10 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 31st of 313–17 | Road vs home | 8–1226th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SJ 0–1 MTL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.