Edmonton Oilers at Detroit Red Wings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Oilers- Zach HymanGoals1
- Zach HymanAssists1
- Zach HymanPoints2
Red Wings- Olli MaattaGoals1
- Dylan LarkinAssists1
- Olli MaattaPoints1
Scoring summary
- OT1:20Darnell Nurse Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none3–2
- P316:03Olli Maatta Goal (2) Poke, assists: Lucas Raymond (22), Dylan Larkin (20)2–2
- P314:00Zach Hyman Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (27), Mattias Ekholm (13)2–1
- P39:12Connor McDavid Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (16)1–1
- P33:34Andrew Copp Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: none0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P33:34Andrew Copp Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: noneEDM 0 – 1 DET · DET 52% → 78% +25DET 52% → 78%+25 pts
- P39:12Connor McDavid Goal (16) Wrist Shot, assists: Zach Hyman (16)EDM 1 – 1 DET · EDM 18% → 48% +30EDM 18% → 48%+30 pts
- P314:00Zach Hyman Goal (26) Wrist Shot, assists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (27), Mattias Ekholm (13)EDM 2 – 1 DET · EDM 49% → 87% +38EDM 49% → 87%+38 pts
- P316:03Olli Maatta Goal (2) Poke, assists: Lucas Raymond (22), Dylan Larkin (20)EDM 2 – 2 DET · DET 8% → 51% +43DET 8% → 51%+43 pts
- OT1:20Darnell Nurse Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: noneEDM 3 – 2 DET · EDM 49% → 93% +44EDM 49% → 93%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Red Wings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 53%
- Fair odds
- DET -121
- EDM +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- EDM 3.0 – 3.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | EDM | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +9 | EDM: Calvin Pickard: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +24 Elo | DET 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| EDM | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.65th of 31 |
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.421st of 31 |
| 8th of 31+0.5 | Margin | +0.214th of 31 |
| 4th of 3154.4% | Shot share | 48.1%24th of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.7% | Save percentage | 90.0%19th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 31 |
| 13th of 3110–9 | Road vs home | 10–915th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.