Detroit Red Wings at Los Angeles Kings, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Robby FabbriGoals2
- Daniel SprongAssists2
- Robby FabbriPoints2
Kings- Adrian KempeGoals2
- Alex LaferriereAssists2
- Adrian KempePoints2
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Patrick Kane Goal Wrist Shot2–0
- SO0:00Lucas Raymond Goal Wrist Shot2–0
- P315:43Adrian Kempe Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (9), Alex Laferriere (5)3–3
- P35:24Robby Fabbri Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Daniel Sprong (16), Patrick Kane (8)3–2
- P217:21Jeff Petry Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (19), Joe Veleno (8)2–2
- P29:59Robby Fabbri Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Olli Maatta (7), Daniel Sprong (15)1–2
- P14:18Matt Roy Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anze Kopitar (21), Quinton Byfield (17)0–2
- P11:50Adrian Kempe Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Alex Laferriere (4), Pierre-Luc Dubois (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:50Adrian Kempe Goal (13) Tip-In, assists: Alex Laferriere (4), Pierre-Luc Dubois (8)DET 0 – 1 LA · LA 55% → 69% +14LA 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P29:59Robby Fabbri Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Olli Maatta (7), Daniel Sprong (15)DET 1 – 2 LA · DET 13% → 27% +14DET 13% → 27%+14 pts
- P217:21Jeff Petry Goal (2) Slap Shot, assists: Dylan Larkin (19), Joe Veleno (8)DET 2 – 2 LA · DET 25% → 47% +22DET 25% → 47%+22 pts
- P35:24Robby Fabbri Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Daniel Sprong (16), Patrick Kane (8)DET 3 – 2 LA · DET 47% → 75% +28DET 47% → 75%+28 pts
- P315:43Adrian Kempe Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Pierre-Luc Dubois (9), Alex Laferriere (5)DET 3 – 3 LA · LA 9% → 51% +42LA 9% → 51%+42 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Kings 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LA 57%
- Fair odds
- LA -125
- DET +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.3 LA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | LA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +9 | +4 | DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.22 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LA: David Rittich: team allows 0.10 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +51 Elo | LA 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LA 55.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | LA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 3.315th of 31 |
| 24th of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 2.41st of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.2 | Margin | +0.82nd of 31 |
| 23rd of 3148.4% | Shot share | 56.1%2nd of 31 |
| 23rd of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 91.6%4th of 31 |
| 26th of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 19th of 318–9 | Road vs home | 6–1129th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.