Detroit Red Wings at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Wings- Joe VelenoGoals1
- Ben ChiarotAssists1
- Dylan LarkinPoints1
Ducks- Trevor ZegrasGoals2
- Troy TerryAssists1
- Trevor ZegrasPoints2
Scoring summary
- P318:53Michael Rasmussen Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Moritz Seider (18), Lucas Raymond (21)3–2
- P33:55Trevor Zegras Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (16), Jamie Drysdale (4)2–2
- P22:20Joe Veleno Goal (8) Wrap-around, assists: Andrew Copp (13), Ben Chiarot (8)2–1
- P111:10Dylan Larkin Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: David Perron (8), Shayne Gostisbehere (21)1–1
- P10:20Trevor Zegras Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Troy Terry (14), Adam Henrique (10)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:20Trevor Zegras Goal (3) Tip-In, assists: Troy Terry (14), Adam Henrique (10)DET 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 53% → 67% +14ANA 53% → 67%+14 pts
- P111:10Dylan Larkin Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: David Perron (8), Shayne Gostisbehere (21)DET 1 – 1 ANA · DET 32% → 47% +15DET 32% → 47%+15 pts
- P22:20Joe Veleno Goal (8) Wrap-around, assists: Andrew Copp (13), Ben Chiarot (8)DET 2 – 1 ANA · DET 47% → 65% +18DET 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P33:55Trevor Zegras Goal (4) Snap Shot, assists: Cam Fowler (16), Jamie Drysdale (4)DET 2 – 2 ANA · ANA 25% → 52% +26ANA 25% → 52%+26 pts
- P318:53Michael Rasmussen Goal (9) Tip-In, assists: Moritz Seider (18), Lucas Raymond (21)DET 3 – 2 ANA · DET 50% → >99% +50DET 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 46%
- Fair odds
- ANA -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.2 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +7 | −12 | DET: Alex Lyon: team allows 0.18 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ANA: Lukas Dostal: team allows 0.30 more goals than with its usual starter (≈11 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +25 Elo | DET 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 53.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| DET | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 313.6 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.422nd of 31 |
| 14th of 31+0.2 | Margin | −0.929th of 31 |
| 24th of 3148.2% | Shot share | 47.3%25th of 31 |
| 20th of 3189.9% | Save percentage | 90.1%17th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 31 |
| 14th of 319–9 | Road vs home | 5–1531st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 0–1 ANA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.