Winnipeg Jets at Anaheim Ducks, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ANA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jets- Nate SchmidtGoals1
- Vladislav NamestnikovAssists2
- Vladislav NamestnikovPoints2
Ducks- Mason McTavishGoals1
- Alex KillornAssists1
- Mason McTavishPoints1
Scoring summary
- P313:03Cole Perfetti Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (18), Nino Niederreiter (11)3–1
- P31:57Nate Schmidt Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (9), Vladislav Namestnikov (17)2–1
- P27:57Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (26), Neal Pionk (13)1–1
- P115:51Mason McTavish Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Alex Killorn (11), Frank Vatrano (10)0–1
Turning points
The 4 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P115:51Mason McTavish Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Alex Killorn (11), Frank Vatrano (10)WPG 0 – 1 ANA · ANA 56% → 72% +16ANA 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P27:57Nikolaj Ehlers Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Mark Scheifele (26), Neal Pionk (13)WPG 1 – 1 ANA · WPG 26% → 44% +18WPG 26% → 44%+18 pts
- P31:57Nate Schmidt Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Samberg (9), Vladislav Namestnikov (17)WPG 2 – 1 ANA · WPG 46% → 71% +25WPG 46% → 71%+25 pts
- P313:03Cole Perfetti Goal (11) Snap Shot, assists: Vladislav Namestnikov (18), Nino Niederreiter (11)WPG 3 – 1 ANA · WPG 84% → 98% +14WPG 84% → 98%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Ducks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ANA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ANA 51%
- Fair odds
- ANA -135
- WPG +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WPG 2.9 – 3.3 ANA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WPG | ANA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | — | WPG on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −3 | +8 | WPG: Laurent Brossoit: team allows 0.08 more goals than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.20 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈18 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ANA +4 Elo | ANA 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ANA 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ANA 57.5% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WPG | Stat | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 313.2 | Goals scored | 2.628th of 31 |
| 1st of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.423rd of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+0.8 | Margin | −0.829th of 31 |
| 9th of 3151.8% | Shot share | 47.0%26th of 31 |
| 1st of 3192.1% | Save percentage | 90.1%16th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 31 |
| 4th of 3110–6 | Road vs home | 5–1431st of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WPG 1–0 ANA in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.