San Jose Sharks at Ottawa Senators, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OTT; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Sharks- Marc-Edouard VlasicGoals1
- Mario FerraroAssists3
- Mario FerraroPoints3
Senators- Brady TkachukGoals1
- Tim StutzleAssists4
- Tim StutzlePoints4
Scoring summary
- P319:55Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Artem Zub (11), Tim Stützle (31)4–5
- P316:56Filip Zadina Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (17), Mario Ferraro (13)4–4
- P212:59Drake Batherson Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Artem Zub (10), Tim Stützle (30)3–4
- P27:11Brady Tkachuk Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (18), Tim Stützle (29)3–3
- P26:20Kevin Labanc Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (12), Mike Hoffman (6)3–2
- P23:53Marc-Edouard Vlasic Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Duclair (8), Mikael Granlund (24)2–2
- P112:35Anthony Duclair Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Alexander Barabanov (5), Mario Ferraro (11)1–2
- P19:58Thomas Chabot Goal (1) Slap Shot, assists: Vladimir Tarasenko (18), Tim Stützle (28)0–2
- P14:12Claude Giroux Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (13), Artem Zub (9)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P26:20Kevin Labanc Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: Mario Ferraro (12), Mike Hoffman (6)SJ 3 – 2 OTT · SJ 46% → 65% +19SJ 46% → 65%+19 pts
- P27:11Brady Tkachuk Goal (18) Snap Shot, assists: Drake Batherson (18), Tim Stützle (29)SJ 3 – 3 OTT · OTT 35% → 54% +19OTT 35% → 54%+19 pts
- P212:59Drake Batherson Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Artem Zub (10), Tim Stützle (30)SJ 3 – 4 OTT · OTT 54% → 74% +20OTT 54% → 74%+20 pts
- P316:56Filip Zadina Goal (5) Slap Shot, assists: Tomas Hertl (17), Mario Ferraro (13)SJ 4 – 4 OTT · SJ 5% → 49% +44SJ 5% → 49%+44 pts
- P319:55Vladimir Tarasenko Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Artem Zub (11), Tim Stützle (31)SJ 4 – 5 OTT · OTT 50% → 100% +50OTT 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Senators 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- OTT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OTT 59%
- Fair odds
- OTT -126
- SJ +126 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SJ 3.0 – 3.3 OTT
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SJ | OTT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1427 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −17 | SJ: Mackenzie Blackwood: team allows 0.06 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · OTT: Joonas Korpisalo: team allows 0.43 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OTT +64 Elo | OTT 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OTT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OTT 55.8% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SJ | Stat | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| 31st of 312.0 | Goals scored | 3.312th of 31 |
| 31st of 314.2 | Goals allowed | 3.729th of 31 |
| 31st of 31−2.1 | Margin | −0.422nd of 31 |
| 31st of 3141.5% | Shot share | 51.0%14th of 31 |
| 27th of 3189.1% | Save percentage | 88.7%29th of 31 |
| 31st of 311–9 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 31 |
| 30th of 314–17 | Road vs home | 8–1023rd of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.