Washington Capitals at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals
Blues- Brayden SchennGoals1
- Robert ThomasAssists2
- Robert ThomasPoints2
Scoring summary
- P315:51Jake Neighbours Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Robert Thomas (30), Jordan Kyrou (21)0–3
- P27:44Brayden Schenn Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (17), Pavel Buchnevich (20)0–2
- P12:37Colton Parayko Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (29)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P12:37Colton Parayko Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (29)WSH 0 – 1 STL · STL 55% → 69% +14STL 55% → 69%+14 pts
- P27:44Brayden Schenn Goal (10) Slap Shot, assists: Justin Faulk (17), Pavel Buchnevich (20)WSH 0 – 2 STL · STL 72% → 86% +14STL 72% → 86%+14 pts
- P315:51Jake Neighbours Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Robert Thomas (30), Jordan Kyrou (21)WSH 0 – 3 STL · STL >99% → >99% +0STL >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Fair odds
- STL -120
- WSH +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 3.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | −1 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.25 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.02 more goals than with its usual starter (≈22 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +20 Elo | STL 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.216th of 31 |
| 25th of 31−0.4 | Margin | −0.324th of 31 |
| 24th of 3147.4% | Shot share | 47.6%23rd of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.1% | Save percentage | 91.0%9th of 31 |
| 15th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 15th of 319–9 | Road vs home | 12–810th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–0 STL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.