Florida Panthers at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Panthers- Matthew TkachukGoals3
- Matthew TkachukAssists1
- Matthew TkachukPoints4
Blues- Brayden SchennGoals1
- Brandon SaadAssists1
- Brayden SchennPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:03Matthew Tkachuk Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Dmitry Kulikov (10)5–1
- P35:57Matthew Tkachuk Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Gustav Forsling (12), Anton Lundell (11)4–1
- P32:18Matthew Tkachuk Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (18)3–1
- P21:11Sam Reinhart Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (28), Aleksander Barkov (33)2–1
- P115:56Kevin Stenlund Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonah Gadjovich (2), William Lockwood (1)1–1
- P13:24Brayden Schenn Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (3), Brandon Saad (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P13:24Brayden Schenn Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Jake Neighbours (3), Brandon Saad (8)FLA 0 – 1 STL · STL 54% → 68% +14STL 54% → 68%+14 pts
- P115:56Kevin Stenlund Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Jonah Gadjovich (2), William Lockwood (1)FLA 1 – 1 STL · FLA 30% → 47% +16FLA 30% → 47%+16 pts
- P21:11Sam Reinhart Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (28), Aleksander Barkov (33)FLA 2 – 1 STL · FLA 47% → 65% +18FLA 47% → 65%+18 pts
- P32:18Matthew Tkachuk Goal (9) Snap Shot, assists: Carter Verhaeghe (18)FLA 3 – 1 STL · FLA 73% → 90% +17FLA 73% → 90%+17 pts
- P35:57Matthew Tkachuk Goal (10) Tip-In, assists: Gustav Forsling (12), Anton Lundell (11)FLA 4 – 1 STL · FLA 93% → 99% +6FLA 93% → 99%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 50%
- Fair odds
- STL -117
- FLA +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- FLA 3.0 – 3.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | FLA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | +1 | FLA: Anthony Stolarz: team allows 0.08 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · STL: Joel Hofer: team allows 0.01 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | FLA +1 Elo | FLA 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.0% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| FLA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 313.1 | Goals scored | 2.925th of 31 |
| 3rd of 312.6 | Goals allowed | 3.114th of 31 |
| 6th of 31+0.6 | Margin | −0.220th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3155.6% | Shot share | 48.4%23rd of 31 |
| 7th of 3191.2% | Save percentage | 91.1%9th of 31 |
| 3rd of 317–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 31 |
| 7th of 3112–9 | Road vs home | 11–55th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
FLA 0–1 STL in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.