St. Louis Blues at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blues- Nathan WalkerGoals1
- Oskar SundqvistAssists1
- Nathan WalkerPoints1
Hurricanes- Teuvo TeravainenGoals1
- Jack DruryAssists1
- Teuvo TeravainenPoints1
Scoring summary
- SO0:00Brayden Schenn Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Jake Neighbours Goal Wrist Shot2–1
- SO0:00Sebastian Aho Goal Backhand2–1
- P113:17Teuvo Teravainen Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Drury (11)1–1
- P111:04Nathan Walker Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (11), Torey Krug (17)1–0
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P111:04Nathan Walker Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (11), Torey Krug (17)STL 1 – 0 CAR · STL 49% → 65% +16STL 49% → 65%+16 pts
- P113:17Teuvo Teravainen Goal (14) Snap Shot, assists: Jack Drury (11)STL 1 – 1 CAR · CAR 35% → 51% +16CAR 35% → 51%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 52%
- Fair odds
- CAR -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.1 – 3.2 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | — | −30 | CAR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | −2 | −25 | STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.04 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · CAR: Antti Raanta: team allows 0.61 more goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +13 Elo | CAR 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 50.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| STL | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 312.9 | Goals scored | 3.58th of 31 |
| 14th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 3.113th of 31 |
| 22nd of 31−0.2 | Margin | +0.411th of 31 |
| 22nd of 3148.6% | Shot share | 56.6%1st of 31 |
| 11th of 3190.9% | Save percentage | 88.6%31st of 31 |
| 6th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 31 |
| 27th of 316–11 | Road vs home | 10–69th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.