Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hurricanes- Brent BurnsGoals2
- Sebastian AhoAssists3
- Brent BurnsPoints3
Capitals- Nic DowdGoals1
- Nicolas Aube-KubelAssists1
- Nic DowdPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:01Vasily Ponomarev Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi (8)6–2
- P318:11Dmitry Orlov Goal (2) Wrist Shot, assists: none5–2
- P313:59Brent Burns Goal (8) Slap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (17), Sebastian Aho (31)4–2
- P312:41Andrei Svechnikov Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (30), Brent Burns (15)3–2
- P33:23Seth Jarvis Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Vasily Ponomarev (1), Dmitry Orlov (13)2–2
- P25:17Brent Burns Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (16), Sebastian Aho (29)1–2
- P116:29Dylan Strome Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Alex Ovechkin (17), John Carlson (19)0–2
- P17:06Nic Dowd Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel (5), Beck Malenstyn (5)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P17:06Nic Dowd Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel (5), Beck Malenstyn (5)CAR 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 53% → 68% +15WSH 53% → 68%+15 pts
- P116:29Dylan Strome Goal (14) Tip-In, assists: Alex Ovechkin (17), John Carlson (19)CAR 0 – 2 WSH · WSH 69% → 82% +13WSH 69% → 82%+13 pts
- P25:17Brent Burns Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Andrei Svechnikov (16), Sebastian Aho (29)CAR 1 – 2 WSH · CAR 15% → 29% +14CAR 15% → 29%+14 pts
- P33:23Seth Jarvis Goal (14) Backhand, assists: Vasily Ponomarev (1), Dmitry Orlov (13)CAR 2 – 2 WSH · CAR 23% → 48% +25CAR 23% → 48%+25 pts
- P312:41Andrei Svechnikov Goal (9) Slap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (30), Brent Burns (15)CAR 3 – 2 WSH · CAR 49% → 84% +36CAR 49% → 84%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 48%
- Fair odds
- WSH -116
- CAR +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CAR 3.0 – 3.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CAR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +14 | −4 | CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.35 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) · WSH: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.11 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +14 Elo | CAR 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 53.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| CAR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 2.529th of 31 |
| 14th of 313.1 | Goals allowed | 2.910th of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.3 | Margin | −0.425th of 31 |
| 1st of 3156.3% | Shot share | 47.4%25th of 31 |
| 31st of 3188.6% | Save percentage | 91.1%10th of 31 |
| 7th of 316–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 31 |
| 12th of 3111–11 | Road vs home | 9–918th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CAR 0–1 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.