New York Rangers at St. Louis Blues, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors STL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adam FoxGoals1
- Barclay GoodrowAssists1
- Vincent TrocheckPoints1
Blues- Jordan KyrouGoals3
- Pavel BuchnevichAssists2
- Jordan KyrouPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:42Pavel Buchnevich Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Oskar Sundqvist (12), Colton Parayko (6)2–5
- P310:58Vincent Trocheck Goal (13) Snap Shot, assists: Chris Kreider (16), Artemi Panarin (32)2–4
- P37:01Jordan Kyrou Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Leddy (9)1–4
- P29:26Brandon Saad Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (9), Torey Krug (18)1–3
- P17:30Jordan Kyrou Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (19), Robert Thomas (27)1–2
- P14:02Jordan Kyrou Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (26), Pavel Buchnevich (18)1–1
- P11:51Adam Fox Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Barclay Goodrow (4), Ryan Lindgren (5)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P11:51Adam Fox Goal (5) Wrist Shot, assists: Barclay Goodrow (4), Ryan Lindgren (5)NYR 1 – 0 STL · NYR 46% → 60% +15NYR 46% → 60%+15 pts
- P14:02Jordan Kyrou Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Robert Thomas (26), Pavel Buchnevich (18)NYR 1 – 1 STL · STL 39% → 54% +15STL 39% → 54%+15 pts
- P17:30Jordan Kyrou Goal (11) Tip-In, assists: Pavel Buchnevich (19), Robert Thomas (27)NYR 1 – 2 STL · STL 54% → 69% +15STL 54% → 69%+15 pts
- P29:26Brandon Saad Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Brayden Schenn (9), Torey Krug (18)NYR 1 – 3 STL · STL 72% → 86% +14STL 72% → 86%+14 pts
- P37:01Jordan Kyrou Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Nick Leddy (9)NYR 1 – 4 STL · STL 95% → >99% +4STL 95% → >99%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blues 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 51%
- Fair odds
- STL -119
- NYR +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | −6 | +2 | NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.16 more goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · STL: Jordan Binnington: team allows 0.05 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +8 Elo | STL 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 2.825th of 31 |
| 10th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.117th of 31 |
| 9th of 31+0.5 | Margin | −0.321st of 31 |
| 16th of 3150.4% | Shot share | 48.5%23rd of 31 |
| 11th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 91.0%9th of 31 |
| 13th of 315–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 1st of 3113–7 | Road vs home | 11–67th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.