Anaheim Ducks at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks
Capitals- Tom WilsonGoals1
- T.J. OshieAssists1
- Tom WilsonPoints1
Scoring summary
- P319:02Tom Wilson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Fehervary (6), Nic Dowd (5)0–2
- P119:22Ethan Bear Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: T.J. Oshie (3), Nick Jensen (7)0–1
Turning points
The 2 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P119:22Ethan Bear Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: T.J. Oshie (3), Nick Jensen (7)ANA 0 – 1 WSH · WSH 54% → 71% +17WSH 54% → 71%+17 pts
- P319:02Tom Wilson Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Martin Fehervary (6), Nic Dowd (5)ANA 0 – 2 WSH · WSH >99% → >99% +0WSH >99% → >99%+0 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 56%
- Fair odds
- WSH -124
- ANA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 2.9 – 3.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +3 | −10 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.09 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) · WSH: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.26 more goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +45 Elo | WSH 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 55.3% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 2.529th of 31 |
| 26th of 313.5 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 31 |
| 29th of 31−0.9 | Margin | −0.525th of 31 |
| 26th of 3146.6% | Shot share | 47.0%25th of 31 |
| 21st of 3189.8% | Save percentage | 90.9%11th of 31 |
| 23rd of 313–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 31 |
| 18th of 319–10 | Road vs home | 11–1117th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ANA 0–1 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.