Washington Capitals at New York Rangers, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NYR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Capitals- T.J. OshieGoals1
- Max PaciorettyAssists1
- T.J. OshiePoints1
Rangers- Artemi PanarinGoals1
- Vincent TrocheckAssists1
- Artemi PanarinPoints1
Scoring summary
- P211:03T.J. Oshie Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Dylan Strome (11), Max Pacioretty (2)1–2
- P119:10Alexis Lafrenière Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Braden Schneider (8)0–2
- P10:50Artemi Panarin Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (29), Jacob Trouba (14)0–1
Turning points
The 3 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P10:50Artemi Panarin Goal (27) Snap Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (29), Jacob Trouba (14)WSH 0 – 1 NYR · NYR 56% → 69% +14NYR 56% → 69%+14 pts
- P119:10Alexis Lafrenière Goal (11) Wrist Shot, assists: Braden Schneider (8)WSH 0 – 2 NYR · NYR 71% → 84% +13NYR 71% → 84%+13 pts
- P211:03T.J. Oshie Goal (4) Deflected, assists: Dylan Strome (11), Max Pacioretty (2)WSH 1 – 2 NYR · WSH 13% → 27% +14WSH 13% → 27%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYR 58%
- Fair odds
- NYR -125
- WSH +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 3.3 NYR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Rest | −30 | −30 | NYR and WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Starting goalies | +8 | −9 | WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.19 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈13 weighted starts) · NYR: Igor Shesterkin: team allows 0.23 more goals than with its usual starter (≈20 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +54 Elo | NYR 57.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYR 55.6% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| WSH | Stat | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 312.5 | Goals scored | 3.411th of 31 |
| 11th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.010th of 31 |
| 26th of 31−0.5 | Margin | +0.412th of 31 |
| 25th of 3147.1% | Shot share | 50.9%15th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.8% | Save percentage | 90.5%13th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313–7 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 31 |
| 13th of 319–8 | Road vs home | 12–65th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 2–1 NYR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.