Seattle Kraken at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kraken- Adam LarssonGoals1
- Brandon TanevAssists2
- Adam LarssonPoints2
Capitals- Max PaciorettyGoals1
- Trevor van RiemsdykAssists1
- Max PaciorettyPoints1
Scoring summary
- P312:02Adam Larsson Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Brandon Tanev (4), Jaden Schwartz (9)4–1
- P218:20Justin Schultz Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (17), Oliver Bjorkstrand (20)3–1
- P25:47Max Pacioretty Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (19), Trevor van Riemsdyk (7)2–1
- P118:12Alex Wennberg Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Tanev (3)2–0
- P18:50Tye Kartye Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (9), Adam Larsson (10)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P18:50Tye Kartye Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Jared McCann (9), Adam Larsson (10)SEA 1 – 0 WSH · SEA 46% → 62% +16SEA 46% → 62%+16 pts
- P118:12Alex Wennberg Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Brandon Tanev (3)SEA 2 – 0 WSH · SEA 64% → 78% +15SEA 64% → 78%+15 pts
- P25:47Max Pacioretty Goal (1) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (19), Trevor van Riemsdyk (7)SEA 2 – 1 WSH · WSH 19% → 34% +16WSH 19% → 34%+16 pts
- P218:20Justin Schultz Goal (4) Backhand, assists: Eeli Tolvanen (17), Oliver Bjorkstrand (20)SEA 3 – 1 WSH · SEA 71% → 88% +17SEA 71% → 88%+17 pts
- P312:02Adam Larsson Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Brandon Tanev (4), Jaden Schwartz (9)SEA 4 – 1 WSH · SEA 98% → >99% +2SEA 98% → >99%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 51%
- Fair odds
- WSH -119
- SEA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.0 – 3.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +19 | −8 | SEA: Joey Daccord: team allows 0.47 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) · WSH: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.21 more goals than with its usual starter (≈16 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +8 Elo | WSH 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 54.2% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| SEA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 312.8 | Goals scored | 2.529th of 31 |
| 9th of 312.9 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 31 |
| 18th of 31−0.1 | Margin | −0.525th of 31 |
| 20th of 3149.4% | Shot share | 47.0%26th of 31 |
| 8th of 3191.1% | Save percentage | 90.9%10th of 31 |
| 1st of 318–2 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 31 |
| 22nd of 318–11 | Road vs home | 10–1018th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.