Los Angeles Kings at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Kevin FialaGoals2
- Drew DoughtyAssists1
- Kevin FialaPoints2
Capitals- Nicolas Aube-KubelGoals1
- Nicolas Aube-KubelAssists2
- Nicolas Aube-KubelPoints3
Scoring summary
- P319:07John Carlson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Beck Malenstyn (6), Nicolas Aube-Kubel (7)3–4
- P38:36Nicolas Aube-Kubel Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nic Dowd (4)3–3
- P31:01Kevin Fiala Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Quinton Byfield (18)3–2
- P215:35Dylan Strome Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (18), Max Pacioretty (1)2–2
- P213:02Kevin Fiala Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (14), Mikey Anderson (11)2–1
- P27:12Adrian Kempe Goal (15) Slap Shot, assists: Drew Doughty (13), Anze Kopitar (22)1–1
- P24:22Nic Dowd Goal (6) Backhand, assists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel (6), John Carlson (20)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P213:02Kevin Fiala Goal (9) Wrist Shot, assists: Phillip Danault (14), Mikey Anderson (11)LA 2 – 1 WSH · LA 48% → 69% +21LA 48% → 69%+21 pts
- P215:35Dylan Strome Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Alex Ovechkin (18), Max Pacioretty (1)LA 2 – 2 WSH · WSH 30% → 52% +22WSH 30% → 52%+22 pts
- P31:01Kevin Fiala Goal (10) Backhand, assists: Quinton Byfield (18)LA 3 – 2 WSH · LA 48% → 72% +25LA 48% → 72%+25 pts
- P38:36Nicolas Aube-Kubel Goal (4) Wrist Shot, assists: Nic Dowd (4)LA 3 – 3 WSH · WSH 21% → 52% +30WSH 21% → 52%+30 pts
- P319:07John Carlson Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Beck Malenstyn (6), Nicolas Aube-Kubel (7)LA 3 – 4 WSH · WSH 50% → >99% +49WSH 50% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 48%
- Fair odds
- WSH -116
- LA +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LA 3.0 – 3.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +6 | −10 | LA: Cam Talbot: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · WSH: Darcy Kuemper: team allows 0.24 more goals than with its usual starter (≈15 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LA +11 Elo | LA 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 53.7% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| LA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 313.3 | Goals scored | 2.529th of 31 |
| 2nd of 312.5 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 31 |
| 3rd of 31+0.8 | Margin | −0.526th of 31 |
| 2nd of 3156.3% | Shot share | 47.0%26th of 31 |
| 3rd of 3191.5% | Save percentage | 90.9%12th of 31 |
| 21st of 314–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 31 |
| 1st of 3111–3 | Road vs home | 9–1020th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LA 0–1 WSH in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.