New York Rangers at Washington Capitals, NHL forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adam FoxGoals2
- Will CuylleAssists1
- Adam FoxPoints2
Capitals- T.J. OshieGoals1
- Dylan StromeAssists1
- T.J. OshiePoints1
Scoring summary
- P38:29T.J. Oshie Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Dylan Strome (10), Joel Edmundson (2)2–3
- P36:36Nic Dowd Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Evgeny Kuznetsov (8), John Carlson (21)2–2
- P25:15Adam Fox Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: none2–1
- P117:50Anthony Mantha Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Connor McMichael (8)1–1
- P113:23Adam Fox Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (5), Chris Kreider (17)1–0
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P113:23Adam Fox Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Will Cuylle (5), Chris Kreider (17)NYR 1 – 0 WSH · NYR 47% → 63% +16NYR 47% → 63%+16 pts
- P117:50Anthony Mantha Goal (12) Backhand, assists: Connor McMichael (8)NYR 1 – 1 WSH · WSH 36% → 53% +17WSH 36% → 53%+17 pts
- P25:15Adam Fox Goal (7) Slap Shot, assists: noneNYR 2 – 1 WSH · NYR 47% → 66% +19NYR 47% → 66%+19 pts
- P36:36Nic Dowd Goal (7) Tip-In, assists: Evgeny Kuznetsov (8), John Carlson (21)NYR 2 – 2 WSH · WSH 23% → 52% +28WSH 23% → 52%+28 pts
- P38:29T.J. Oshie Goal (3) Backhand, assists: Dylan Strome (10), Joel Edmundson (2)NYR 2 – 3 WSH · WSH 52% → 81% +29WSH 52% → 81%+29 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Capitals 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 51.2% of 926 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 49%
- Fair odds
- WSH -117
- NYR +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYR 3.0 – 3.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYR | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +5 | +7 | NYR: Jonathan Quick: team allows 0.14 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) · WSH: Charlie Lindgren: team allows 0.17 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈12 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYR +4 Elo | NYR 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 53.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| NYR | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 313.4 | Goals scored | 2.529th of 31 |
| 10th of 313.0 | Goals allowed | 3.011th of 31 |
| 12th of 31+0.4 | Margin | −0.526th of 31 |
| 15th of 3150.8% | Shot share | 47.1%25th of 31 |
| 12th of 3190.6% | Save percentage | 90.8%11th of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 31 |
| 4th of 3113–8 | Road vs home | 10–1119th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYR 1–1 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.