Anaheim Ducks at Carolina Hurricanes, NHL forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CAR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Ducks- Isac LundestromGoals1
- Brock McGinnAssists1
- Ryan StromePoints1
Hurricanes- Seth JarvisGoals1
- Seth JarvisAssists2
- Seth JarvisPoints3
Scoring summary
- P39:54Seth Jarvis Goal (15) Tip-In, assists: Brent Burns (16), Jordan Martinook (9)3–6
- P216:41Jack Drury Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (14), Teuvo Teravainen (10)3–5
- P214:30Stefan Noesen Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Michael Bunting (18), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (9)3–4
- P210:53Frank Vatrano Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (12)3–3
- P210:06Ryan Strome Goal (5) Batted, assists: Troy Terry (16)2–3
- P21:57Jordan Martinook Goal (3) Snap Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (16)1–3
- P20:25Isac Lundestrom Goal (1) Snap Shot, assists: Brett Leason (6), Brock McGinn (2)1–2
- P116:15Andrei Svechnikov Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Sebastian Aho (32), Teuvo Teravainen (9)0–2
- P116:00Brady Skjei Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (15), Jordan Staal (8)0–1
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- P116:00Brady Skjei Goal (7) Wrist Shot, assists: Seth Jarvis (15), Jordan Staal (8)ANA 0 – 1 CAR · CAR 56% → 72% +16CAR 56% → 72%+16 pts
- P210:06Ryan Strome Goal (5) Batted, assists: Troy Terry (16)ANA 2 – 3 CAR · ANA 12% → 26% +14ANA 12% → 26%+14 pts
- P210:53Frank Vatrano Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Adam Henrique (12)ANA 3 – 3 CAR · ANA 26% → 45% +19ANA 26% → 45%+19 pts
- P214:30Stefan Noesen Goal (11) Backhand, assists: Michael Bunting (18), Jesperi Kotkaniemi (9)ANA 3 – 4 CAR · CAR 55% → 75% +20CAR 55% → 75%+20 pts
- P216:41Jack Drury Goal (7) Snap Shot, assists: Stefan Noesen (14), Teuvo Teravainen (10)ANA 3 – 5 CAR · CAR 76% → 90% +14CAR 76% → 90%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Hurricanes 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NHL favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 56.4% of 1,035 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CAR 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CAR 64%
- Fair odds
- CAR -132
- ANA +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ANA 3.0 – 3.3 CAR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ANA | CAR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +35 | Worth 35 Elo in the NHL |
| Starting goalies | +10 | +16 | ANA: John Gibson: team allows 0.24 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈19 weighted starts) · CAR: Pyotr Kochetkov: team allows 0.40 fewer goals than with its usual starter (≈17 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CAR +102 Elo | CAR 64.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CAR 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CAR 56.9% | 20% Elo, 80% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Overtime and shootout losses count as losses in these records. Shot share is a team's share of the shots on goal in its games. PDO adds shooting and save percentages: far from 100 tends to even out.
| ANA | Stat | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 312.6 | Goals scored | 3.48th of 31 |
| 22nd of 313.4 | Goals allowed | 3.012th of 31 |
| 29th of 31−0.8 | Margin | +0.412th of 31 |
| 25th of 3147.4% | Shot share | 56.6%1st of 31 |
| 17th of 3190.1% | Save percentage | 88.7%31st of 31 |
| 19th of 314–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 31 |
| 16th of 318–8 | Road vs home | 10–710th of 31 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ANA 1–0 CAR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.